ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 3:07 PM EDT842
FXUS61 KILN 021907
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
307 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light showers, mainly south of I-70, will diminish from northwest
to southeast through early this evening in the wake of a departing
cold front.
2) Expect generally dry conditions along with below normal temperatures
through early next week. Temperatures then warm back to somewhat above
normal by next Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)
Northern part of a strong mid level ridge centered over the
southeast U.S. is suppressed as westerlies drop south thru the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This will allow a slow moving cold front
to drop thru ILN/s northwest counties this morning and the remainder
of the area this afternoon. This front is an ana front with showers
along and behind the frontal boundary. Instability is very marginal
with forecast soundings showing a very skinny cape profile. As the
front slips into the area this morning expect mainly showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms possible over the south this afternoon.
Clouds, rain, and northwest to north winds at 10-15 mph in the post
frontal environment will make for a cool day. Expect little diurnal
rise with temperatures in the 60s after the frontal passage.
Key Message 2)
The models are in generally good agreement with west northwest flow
dominating aloft through the middle of next week from the northern
Rockies through the middle Atlantic region. The upper level flow
will then become more zonal across the northern half of the CONUS by
the end of the week. For the Ohio Valley, mainly dry weather can be
expected. Near normal temperatures on Sunday will cool off to about
10 degrees below normal for early next week, thanks to Canadian
surface high pressure that will migrate from the northern/central
Plains to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. This surface high will then
move off to the western Atlantic by Wednesday, with a weak cold
front to pass through the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday, although
moisture looks limited at this time. Temperatures will gradually
warm across the region after Tuesday, reaching back to somewhat
above normal by Friday.
Sensible weather will feature generally decreasing clouds across the
area on Sunday. Mostly sunny skies will dominate north of I-70, with
clouds hanging in near the KY border through early afternoon, thanks
to a departing system to the southeast. Mostly clear nights and
mostly sunny days will then be the rule from Sunday night through
the majority of the upcoming work week. The coolest temperatures
will be in place from Monday through Wednesday morning, with highs
mainly in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending
upon how low dew points can get preceding both Monday night and
Tuesday night, a few sheltered locations could dip into the mid 30s,
with some spotty frost possible. Temperatures will then moderate each
day through Friday, with highs warming through the 70s and lows in
the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mix of mostly IFR and MVFR conditions (mainly due to ceilings) were
present at TAF issuance. There were also some spotty showers, mainly
near and south of the Ohio River. The inclement weather is associated
with a cold front which passed earlier and is dropping south of the
area. As it continues to depart, any remaining showers will taper off
this afternoon and evening, but restrictions due to ceilings will
last a bit longer. However, ceilings will also eventually rise and
break up generally from north to south. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected area wide by about 02Z and then lasting into Wednesday
afternoon.
Northerly winds around 10 kts this afternoon will drop toward 5 kts
tonight and become northeasterly.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AR/JKL
AVIATION...JKL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 3:07 PM EDT---------------
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