LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 6:53 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...739
FXUS63 KLMK 221053
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Large pattern change aloft will bring cooler than normal
temperatures to the region for the remainder of the week and into
the weekend.
* Below normal precipitation is expected over the next 7 days. A
few showers/storms will be possible east of the I-65 corridor on
Wednesday, but dry conditions are expected onward from Thursday
and into next week.
* Crisp/cool mornings are expected for Friday/Saturday mornings
where lows may bottom out in the lower-mid 40s across the
Bluegrass region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Early morning satellite imagery showing plentiful low cloud cover
southern Indiana and much of central and southern Kentucky. A cool
northeasterly flow has allowed temperatures to fall into the upper
50s over northern KY with mid-60s along the WK/BG Parkways. The
warmest spots were down along the KY/TN border where lower 70s were
still reported. Shower and thunderstorm activity has pressed east
of the region. For the remainder of the overnight period, low cloud
cover will continue to work southward through the region while
temperatures cool into upper 50s across southern IN and far northern
KY. Lows toward dawn look to dip into the lower 60s along the WK/BG
Parkway with mid-upper 60s down along the KY/TN border.
Moving into the daytime hours, a cool northeasterly flow will be
seen across the region today. Aloft, a weak shortwave trough axis
will move in from the west. Plentiful cloud cover is expected this
morning and into the afternoon hours. This anticipated cloud cover
will likely keep temperatures cooler than the blended model
forecasts suggest. Therefore we have adjusted temperatures down
closer to a blend of CONSShort and 22/00Z HREF. Highs today will
likely range from the upper 60s over southern Indiana to around 70
between the Ohio River and the WK/BG Parkways. We'll likely see a
little bit stronger gradient down south, with upper 70s to perhaps
near 80. If cloud cover holds on longer than anticipated, these
highs may need to be adjusted downward in future forecast issuances.
For tonight, upper shortwave trough will close off to our north and
we'll be under a bit of a Rex Block with the upper low cutting south
of a ridge over the northern Great Lakes. A cool northeast flow
will continue with overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60.
Moving into Wednesday, the aforementioned upper level low to our
north will continue to slowly move off to the east while deepening.
This will result in an area of low pressure developing off the SE US
coast. Some stronger wraparound moisture will be flung back to the
west and isolated/scattered showers will be possible out in the I-75
corridor. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be seen elsewhere and
that will likely keep our temperatures down again. NBM blend here
looks a bit warm so have again cut back temps a bit with highs in
the upper 60s/lower 70s across the northern half of the region.
We'll likely see a bit of a stronger temp gradient across the
south/southwest where temps may be able to warm into the upper 70s.
Given the trends in the data over the last 24 hours, I suspect that
the blend will trend downward with temps in the next few cycles. The
upper low will move toward the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday night.
Partly cloudy skies are expected with a continued cool/northerly
wind flow. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Thursday through Monday...
Fairly complex upper level pattern will be found across the CONUS at
the start of the period. Hybrid Rex Block is forecast to be in
progress across the eastern US with a deep upper level low moving
through the Mid-Atlantic while deepening. This will result in an
early season east coast low that will move into New England over the
weekend bring widespread rain and wind to those areas.
Further west across our area, the upper level trough axis will
depart to our east while a strong mid-level ridge over the Plains
will gradually build eastward toward the Ohio Valley. The core of
the ridge will likely remain west of the Ohio Valley resulting in a
continued northerly flow across our region. The overall pattern
will keep the Thursday through Sunday period dry with below normal
temperatures continuing.
For Thursday, we should see a gradient of temperature across the
region with the coolest air residing across the Bluegrass region.
Highs over there will top out in the lower 70s with mid-70s in the I-
65 corridor and points west. Under the northerly flow, temps will
really start to cool Thursday night and Friday morning with lows
dropping into the upper 40s over SE Indiana and across much of the
Bluegrass. Temps will likely dip to around 50 in the I-65 corridor
with lower 50s out back in the I-165 region. Highs on Friday will
again feature a NE to SW gradient with highs in the Bluegrass in the
low-mid 70s with mid-upper 70s in the I-65 region back toward the I-
165 corridor. Lows Friday night and Saturday morning look to be
even cooler with mid-upper 40s in the Bluegrass with low-mid 50s out
west of I-65. If we can decouple and get clear skies, it is
possible that some of our typical cooler spots could hit the upper
30s/lower 40s Saturday morning.
A beautiful fall weekend is in store for much of the region. Current
blended guidance is likely too warm through this period. Highs on
Saturday/Sunday will be solidly in the 70s with overnight lows in
the mid-upper 40s in the northeast areas and lower 50s in the
southwest. Dry weather is expected to continue on Monday with a
slight warming trend. Most areas on Monday will again see temps
solidly in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Plentiful low-level cloudiness will persist at the terminals this
morning with mainly IFR cigs, but some tempo drops into LIFR will be
possible through about 22/15Z. We anticipate cigs to lift to MVFR
by mid-late morning and then back into VFR by the afternoon. Surface
winds will remain out of the northeast through the day. A look
ahead suggests that low clouds will likely build down later tonight
with MVFR cigs becoming prevailing after 23/06Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 6:53 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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