[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 20, 16:26z for portions of PBZ

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 20, 16:26z for portions of PBZ

483 
WUUS01 KWNS 201628
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

VALID TIME 201630Z - 211200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   37830258 37810311 37920360 38350391 38990395 39570389
       39990355 40200330 40240250 40080204 39840178 39400152
       38690148 38270172 38010201 37830258 
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   32669840 32410108 33030149 33680106 35149857 36469679
       37449527 37689396 37669317 37569281 37399259 37079253
       36609275 35749335 34309476 33159688 32669840 
0.05   37540463 37790484 38120498 38370499 38730489 39240503
       39500514 39790510 40100487 40430445 40680401 41010328
       41260258 41290226 40990154 40350109 39310084 38160060
       37740051 37000066 36620146 36600250 37090365 37540463
0.15   38300171 38020202 37850246 37820309 37920362 38340391
       38980397 39560389 39990357 40190330 40230259 40090207
       39930187 39430153 38790147 38300171 
CIG1   37620253 37490319 37620372 37920430 38260442 38960438
       39920428 40320389 40710344 40970273 40990231 40900190
       40520171 40050147 39430143 38800144 38320168 38010203
       37620253 
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   37598910 35969301 34019484 32359627 31559771 31119845
       31039943 31260021 31840091 32480137 32920154 33530131
       33950059 34619925 37129595 38749272 39459110 40438620
       40278304 39728091 38717870 38187803 37727784 37437791
       37217809 36727873 36647926 36898003 37538090 37938185
       38248352 38218508 38028794 37598910 
0.05   38490075 37990046 37390024 36630032 36250060 36170108
       36360199 36840302 37540397 38450425 39930428 40500373
       40560275 40570214 40190138 39100095 38490075 
0.15   38000204 37830257 37820310 37950358 38340390 39010394
       39570387 39980358 40180331 40230253 40100206 39880180
       39430153 38730147 38280172 38000204 
0.15   34549531 33939651 33809687 33809716 33969759 34179782
       34779780 35249740 36049649 36299621 36649555 36489488
       36159450 35719442 35319446 34989477 34549531 
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   34779780 35249740 36299621 36649555 36489488 36159450
       35719442 35319446 34549531 33809687 33809716 33969759
       34179782 34779780 
SLGT   39560389 39990357 40190330 40230253 40100206 39880180
       39430153 38730147 38280172 38000204 37830257 37820310
       37920362 38340391 38980397 39560389 
MRGL   33530131 35149857 37129595 38749272 39459110 40438620
       40278304 39728091 38717870 38187803 37727784 37437791
       37217809 36727873 36647926 36898003 37538090 37938185
       38248352 38028794 35969301 34019484 32359627 31119845
       31039943 31260021 31840091 32480137 32920154 33530131
MRGL   39790510 40100487 40430445 41010328 41260258 41290226
       40990154 40350109 38270062 37390024 36630032 36250060
       36170108 36360199 37540463 37790484 38120498 38730489
       39500514 39790510 
TSTM   38377454 37167670 35767871 34548061 33918128 33468140
       33168123 33108072 33907920 34767735 35727484 99999999
       31431236 31881205 32391134 32511089 32381008 31780953
       31170928 30860920 99999999 32679006 34108935 35578821
       36098770 36678701 37208654 37688614 37818625 37628712
       36898898 35989076 35039213 33939323 32479452 31909511
       31469560 31079576 30999576 30919567 30909546 30979503
       31219440 31209350 30999305 30559247 30269207 30339161
       30589115 31449061 32679006 99999999 25839847 27259846
       28079839 28409852 28559864 28559879 28559943 28270000
       27770029 99999999 31090630 31790596 33140534 33980496
       34340442 34580339 34760297 35110272 35350275 35760317
       37050511 38110578 38650600 41060627 42050677 42660708
       45030733 45800675 45780583 45400485 44810334 44470237
       44300122 44290010 44409812 44509646 44209481 43739389
       42729321 41879254 41449173 41579074 41798961 42098777
       42128577 41578257 41117970 40987818 40867658 40627523
       40257425 39817339 

&&
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25
SSE CHK 15 SE OKC 20 WNW TUL 30 ESE BVO 10 SW GMJ 20 WNW FYV 25 SW
FYV  0 - FSM 35 SE MLC 15 WNW GYI 30 W GYI 40 SW ADM 40 ENE SPS 25
SSE CHK

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25
NNW LIC 25 SW AKO  0 - AKO 35 E AKO 35 SW IML 35 N GLD 10 ENE GLD
45 SSE GLD 55 ENE LAA 35 E LAA 20 SSE LAA 25 ESE LHX 10 SSW LHX 30
NW LHX 25 SW LIC 25 NNW LIC

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE LBB 35 NNW FSI 25 N BVO 25 WSW COU 35 S UIN 50 N IND 20 NNW
CMH 35 SSW HLG 30 NNE SHD 25 E CHO 35 WNW RIC 35 W RIC 35 N AVC 35
ENE DAN  0 - DAN 30 S ROA 20 SE BKW 35 SSW CRW 50 N JKL 20 W EVV
25 SSE HRO 25 W DEQ 25 NNE CRS 55 SSE BWD 40 NNE JCT 20 ESE SJT 40
NW SJT 20 NNE BGS 50 N BGS 30 ESE LBB

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 W DEN 25 N DEN 30 E FCL 15 WSW SNY 25 ENE SNY 40 ENE SNY 35 N
IML 30 WNW MCK 25 NNE GCK 30 SSW DDC 40 NW GAG 45 W GAG 35 NNE BGD
35 SW GUY 25 NW TAD 40 SSW PUB 30 WSW PUB 10 SW COS 25 SW DEN 10 W
DEN

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E SBY 35 WNW ORF
10 SSE RDU 50 SSE CLT 10 W CAE 35 SSW CAE 30 SW OGB 25 SSE OGB 20
NW CRE 15 ESE OAJ 55 NE HSE ...CONT... 105 S GBN 65 WSW TUS 30 NW
TUS 30 N TUS 40 SW SAD 20 N DUG 30 SE DUG 50 SSE DUG ...CONT... 25
N JAN 20 SSE UOX 40 E MKL 40 SSW CKV 25 E CKV 15 NNW BWG 40 SSW
SDF 40 SW SDF  0 - OWB 15 SW PAH 10 NNW JBR 20 NNE LIT 40 SSW HOT
15 ENE GGG 35 SSE TYR 50 N UTS 30 NW UTS 25 NW UTS 15 NW UTS 10 N
UTS 25 SW LFK 20 E LFK 20 WNW POE 10 ESE POE 40 NW LFT  0 - LFT 25
ENE LFT  0 - BTR 20 NNW MCB 25 N JAN ...CONT... 30 SSW MFE 40 SW
ALI 30 NW ALI 45 E COT 35 E COT 25 ENE COT 15 WNW COT 50 WSW COT
50 WNW LRD ...CONT... 50 S ELP 25 E ELP 25 SSE SRR 40 E 4CR 75 N
ROW 15 NNW CVS 35 NE CVS 50 E TCC 50 SSW DHT 40 WSW DHT 40 NW RTN
45 N ALS 50 E GUC 35 WSW LAR 30 NE RWL 35 WSW CPR 25 NW SHR 70 N
SHR 30 NW 4BQ 25 E 4BQ 55 S 2WX 45 NE RAP 25 NE PHP 10 SE PIR  0 -
HON 20 NE BKX 30 SSE RWF 35 S MKT 30 SSE MCW 45 S ALO 30 S CID 15
NW MLI 40 SW RFD 45 S RAC 15 SW AZO 40 WNW CLE 20 SSE FKL 20 WNW
UNV 30 SSE IPT 10 E ABE 15 NNE NEL 60 SSE JFK

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 20, 16:26z for portions of PBZ

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