CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 19, 2:39 AM EDT982
FXUS61 KCLE 190639
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
239 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With this update, slowed the progression of showers east across
the area today given current trends and placement of the
boundaries. Widespread precipitation is still expected tonight
into Sunday with similar rainfall totals as previous forecasts.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers with isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread east
across the area today, becoming more widespread tonight. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding remain the primary concerns.
2) An unsettled weather pattern lingers through much of next week
bringing the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation and
cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
This morning, a mid-level ridge over the Gulf Coast is resulting in a
near zonal flow over much of the upper US with a developing trough
over the Rocky Mountain region. Widespread showers are being
observed upstream of the area as an upper level shortwave provides
energy for development on the northern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. This pattern will slowly drift east, resulting
in the showers to gradually spread east across the area today.
Initial showers this morning are expected to only impact the
western/southwestern counties as development and storm motion
follows the instability gradient. However, with a weakening high
pressure centered over the northern Great Lakes pushes east, a warm
front associated with a surface low over Midwest will be able to
nudge further north towards the CWA. This boundary will likely
become the focus for additional shower development and will
ultimately act as a path that the low pressure will follow into the
southern Great Lakes region. As this boundary and the low get closer
to the area tonight, showers are expected to become widespread
across the entire area with periods of heavy rain possible
overnight. On Sunday, this low will drag a strong cold front
southeast through the area, again enhancing shower and possible
thunderstorms development along it. Conditions should begin to dry
out from north to south on Sunday afternoon as this boundary pushes
through.
There remains some uncertainty with this forecast, especially in
regards to how far north the aforementioned warm front will lift,
however confidence continue to grow in regards to the potential for
heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding. The current
forecast through Sunday afternoon has 1-1.5 inches of rain falling
along a line from Cleveland to Youngstown and west with portions of
far NE OH and NW PA expected to get between 0.75-1 inch of rainfall.
Deepening warm cloud layers and anonymously high PWAT values are
expected to couple with storm motion parallel to the flow and result
in showers training. In areas impacted by this training, high QPF
values can be expected. To highlight this concern, WPC has placed
much of the area in a Day 1 Slight (2 of 4) ERO with portions of NE
OH and NW PA in a Day 1 Marginal (1 of 4) ERO. Given the potential
for showers, widespread cloud cover, and the area likely staying
north of the warm front, there is minimal risk of severe weather
although a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. High
temperatures today and Sunday will climb into the 70s with overnight
lows tonight dropping into the 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
An active weather pattern is expected to persist through much of
next week as multiple midlevel troughs move east across the northern
US, bringing the chance for multiple rounds of precipitation and the
first real taste of fall. Some models have continued to suggest a
cut off low developing over the region midweek and persisting
through late week. This pattern would support a northerly flow,
keeping cool temperatures around, but given model divergence this
far out and the inherent uncertainty, timing of any precipitation
after midweek and the exact temperatures may adjust some in coming
forecasts. The current forecast suggests that highs beginning on
Monday into next weekend will be in the 60s with overnight lows
dropping into the 50s with patches in the 40s across NWPA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The challenge through the TAF period will be timing rain as it
moves if from the northwest today and determining the potential
for thunderstorms at any of the terminals. Conditions are
starting off VFR at all sites with mid and high level cloud in
the 12-20K range. Light showers can be seen upstream across
lower Michigan and will try to approach TOL after 10Z and FDY
after 11Z. Dry air in the low levels is delaying the arrival of
showers at the surface as some is being lost to evaporation.
Rain is expected to fill in along the I-75 corridor between
14-18Z and included a tempo at TOL/FDY for moderate showers.
Instability is limited and confidence is low in thunderstorms
today. We are watching a larger complex of thunderstorms located
over southern Wisconsin and this will tend to track towards SW
Ohio this afternoon. Otherwise, impacts from showers will be
limited today as rain will be light as it expands eastward
through the afternoon. Did include a tempo for showers at CLE in
the 18-21 time frame. Ceilings will tend to remain VFR at most
terminals into tonight with lower confidence at TOL where they
may see some MVFR cloud by late afternoon. A more organized area
of showers and possibly thunderstorms is expected to move into
northern Ohio between 06-12Z Sunday.
Northeast winds of 5-10 knots will shift out of the east today
and southeast at southern terminals.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
As high pressure begins to shift out of the region, a warm front is
expected to slowly push north towards the southern Great Lakes
today. This will allow winds to remain from the east at 5-15 knots
with nearshore waves 2 feet or less. This aforementioned front will
act as a path for a low pressure system to travel from the Midwest
towards Lake Erie by Sunday. This will result in shifting and
strengthening winds to be from the northeast at 15-20 knots by Sunday
afternoon. This will result in waves building to 3-5 feet and this
period will likely be the start of prolonged hazardous marine
conditions across Lake Erie. As this low slowly shifts east, a
surface trough with a strong gradient will result in northeast winds
increasing to 20-25 knots beginning Sunday night and possibly
persisting into mid-week. At times, these winds may even approach
Gales, although the timing and duration of that potential remains
low. As these winds increase and persist, waves across Lake Erie are
expected to build to 6-8 feet with locally higher waves possible.
This period will be extremely dangerous to small crafts and will
likely increase rip currents along the southern shore of the lake. A
long duration Small Craft Advisory will be needed as well as a Beach
Hazards Statement through at least Wednesday and will have to
monitor for any additional time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 19, 2:39 AM EDT---------------
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