MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 6:33 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...596
FXUS64 KMOB 141133
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and
Tuesday.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday.
- Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous
conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday
night through Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Forecast remains on track. MM/25
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists
until retreating from the area later in the week in response to
an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the
eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states
builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results
in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on
Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge
building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms
develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and
southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak
upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more
pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail
although may see some convective development over extreme
southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying
the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to
isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over
the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on
Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas
Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated
convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an
associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and
adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the
coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for
Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with
mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be
100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will
be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range
from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An
easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower
surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While
surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high
temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values
at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends
to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk
following for Friday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
VFR flight category prevails across the region through today.
An isolated storm or two are possible this afternoon, generally
west of I-65. Winds remain out of the north less than 5 knots
through the morning, gradually turning southerly at around 5 knots
nearer the coast as the seabreeze moves inland this afternoon.
Light and variable winds return to the area after sunset. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
A light diurnal flow pattern sets up today, turning becoming light
to moderate easterly flow Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly
flow Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend.
1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly
Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 94 74 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Pensacola 93 77 92 77 / 0 0 10 10
Destin 92 78 92 77 / 0 0 10 10
Evergreen 97 72 96 72 / 10 0 0 0
Waynesboro 97 72 97 71 / 20 0 0 0
Camden 97 72 96 74 / 20 0 0 0
Crestview 94 73 94 73 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 6:33 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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