Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2285 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 20%]087
ACUS11 KWNS 121823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121822
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-122015-
Mesoscale Discussion 2285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121822Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible with the strongest
storms this afternoon. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A weak surface reflection of a de-amplifying upper
trough is evident in far eastern Indiana into central Ohio. Ahead of
this feature, thunderstorm coverage is increasing within a pocket of
stronger surface heating across the upper Ohio Valley. A recent
TAMDAR sounding from PIT showed weak mid-level lapse rates but
steepening low-level lapse rates. As storms steadily
deepen/intensify, wind damage will be possible with the strongest
storms. Given the weak large-scale features and mid-level lapse
rates, overall severe potential is expected to remain
isolated/marginal.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
LAT...LON 38498186 38438272 38638302 38918263 39658182 40538065
41357957 41397939 41487894 41257862 40787860 39857911
39367965 38768083 38498186
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2285 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 20%]---------------
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