MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 12:45 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...282
FXUS64 KMOB 111745
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
- High rain chances continue through Saturday with the potential
for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of
producing strong wind gusts will be possible.
- Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
today, primarily from the pre-dawn hours through mid- morning.
- High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat
indices ranging from 100-107 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
The upper ridge has been weakening across the Southeast with an
advancing shortwave moving in from the west through today. At the
surface, a weak low pressure and surface trough is currently just
off the coast and is projected to move generally north-northeast
into southern Mississippi by the morning. This morning in particular
has become more interesting with the low pressure moving closer with
the surface trough and the daily land breeze acting as extra
convergence. Some bands of precipitation have already developed
mostly over offshore waters. These could begin causing some flooding
concerns over our coastal counties if they line up to train over the
same areas. Ensemble 6-hour PMMs are showing some areas of enhanced
rainfall of 4-6 inches along the coastal zones. Additionally, storms
over coastal waters have an enhanced waterspout potential with the
non-supercell tornado parameter quickly increasing near the surface
trough and weak low.
Deep layer moisture has returned to the area after the below normal
PWATs earlier this week. We have quickly rebounded well above normal
with values in the 2.2-2.4 inch range. The latest 00Z sounding to
the west at LIX shows the entire atmospheric column close to fully
saturated and a 2.35 inch PWAT which is well above the 90th
percentile based on sounding climatology. Ensembles show this deep
moisture plume of 2+ inch PWATs persisting through at least Monday
morning. These high PWATs and warm mid-level temperatures with a
freezing level of 15,000+ feet will support very efficient warm rain
processes within any convection. The area in turn has increased
precipitation and localized flooding chances through the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year in the upper
80s and low 90s. Afternoon dewpoints should stay generally in the
low 70s to perhaps the upper 60s inland where the most efficient
mixing occurs with mid 70s closer to the coast. This should keep the
heat indices below criteria for the forecast period.
Ridging builds back into the area by the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. We are on the southern periphery of the
ridge under easterly flow before the ridge begins to retrograde to
the west by the end of the week. This results in increasing
temperatures back above normal in the mid 90s inland and the low 90s
along the coast as well as lower precipitation chances.
...BEACH FORECAST...
The rip current risk is now low today and lasts through mid next
week for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. Outside of any
storms, surf heights remain generally 1 to 2 feet through the end of
next week.
SS/97
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
MVFR conditions will prevail early this afternoon with scattered
showers and storms. VFR conditions return late this afternoon and
evening. Additional showers and storms are possible near the coast
in the morning with reduced ceilings and visbys in and around
thunderstorms. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Moderate onshore flow continues today, becoming light this
weekend. A diurnal flow pattern sets up Monday before a more
established moderate easterly flow becomes established by mid-week.
Seas will be around 2 feet today, decreasing to 1 foot for the
weekend into early next week. Waterspouts are possible early each
morning. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 89 73 91 / 50 80 20 60
Pensacola 77 89 77 90 / 60 80 40 50
Destin 78 88 77 89 / 60 60 50 40
Evergreen 71 90 71 93 / 30 70 10 50
Waynesboro 71 91 71 94 / 30 60 10 30
Camden 71 90 72 92 / 40 70 20 30
Crestview 72 90 72 92 / 50 80 20 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 12:45 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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