JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 5:15 AM EDT198
FXUS63 KJKL 110915
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
515 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as a
cold front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.
- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times, which could lead
to isolated instances of flash flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows a wavy front laying southwest to
northeast through Kentucky. This is responsible for another round
of showers and thunderstorms lifting into the northern parts of
the JKL CWA with isolated convection elsewhere. The latest batch
of storms seems to be mitigating much of the thicker areas of fog
but some patches surely remain. Currently, temperatures (and
dewpoints) are fairly uniform through eastern Kentucky - in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a weak 5h trough working through the
Ohio Valley with a band of mid level energy just northwest of
Kentucky this morning. The core of this trough will not pass
through our area until later Saturday so that lower heights and
bits of energy will be around during the breadth of the short
term portion of the forecast. Meanwhile, ridging at 5h is found
well to the southwest, near the Gadsden Purchase territory, at
the start of the period but does build quickly northeast with
time. Accordingly, by Saturday evening it will be in the process
of shoving the lower heights of the 5h trough out of the state. On
account of the very small model spread, mainly unadjusted NBM
data were used for the forecast grids this morning. With high
dewpoint air in place there was little opportunity to improve
temperatures or dewpoints through the first part of the weekend.
As for PoPs, included radar details in the near term along with
the latest CAMs guidance to enhance the NBM PoPs through Saturday.
Sensible weather will feature a wet and stormy day with the
nearby front, upper support, diurnal curve building more
instability by afternoon, and persistent PWS near climatological
maximums in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range. The shower and storm
chances continue through the night - mainly showers as the daytime
instability wanes. Look for areas of fog again between the bouts
of pcpn. Saturday could be a bit more dynamic with the upper low
finally moving through the area around peak heating and for this
reason, as well as antecedent conditions, WPC has placed a portion
of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Any training
could result in localized flooding through the period.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were for PoPs -
adjusting them for near term radar trends and then through the
rest of the period via the inclusion of guidance from the latest
CAMs. Temperatures and dewpoints were not adjusted much
considering the high moisture content in the air.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long term
period. The period begins Saturday evening with a weak upper level
shortwave near or over eastern Kentucky producing numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms, with activity quickly winding
down through the evening and overnight as the trough passes to the
east, with heights rising in the wake of this system. This will lead
to isolated convection Sunday, mainly confined to the higher terrain
given the lack of synoptic scale forcing.
As we move into the beginning of the work week and into mid-week, we
will see upper-level ridging become further established across the
Southeast US. This ridging will be quite strong for this time of
year, running above the 90th percentile. This will usher in mostly
dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with that will come warmer
temperatures. The warmest day right now is expected to be Tuesday,
with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then by
Wednesday into Thursday this ridging will start to breakdown and a
cold front will progress across the Ohio Valley. There has been some
timing differences with this boundary within the various model
suites that will need to be resolved, but overall expect increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms through the mid to late week
period. Then some of the guidance shows this boundary could usher in
some much drier and cooler weather by late in the week into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
Deteriorating conditions will be the rule with conditions of
VFR/MVFR falling to MVFR/IFR or lower into the morning hours as a
mix of low clouds and fog continue to develop across the area
within a weak warm advection environment. Rain shower activity
likely redevelops through the rest of the night as an upper wave
approaches from the west through morning. The potential for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms returns with this as well and
continues through the day - becoming likely in the afternoon as
even minimal instability will help to repeatedly kick off
convection upstream and later over the area. Confidence remains
too low to include anything aside from PROB30 groups at any
specific terminal at this time, though. Otherwise, away from any
storms, winds will be light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ/CMC
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 5:15 AM EDT---------------
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