JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 2:13 PM EDT363
FXUS63 KJKL 091813
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
213 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will inch higher today, with humidity also
climbing a bit into Wednesday and Thursday.
- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us
our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday
or Thursday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
Refreshed the forecast with the latest observational data from
around the area. No major changes were made to the forecast, and
it remains on track. Removed fog wording as it has mixed out
across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 609 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
Upper level high pressure is aligned west-east over the southern
CONUS early this morning, while faster flow of prevailing
westerlies aloft is just to our north. One shortwave trough is
embedded over the upper Midwest, and a second one over the
northern Rockies of the CONUS. These waves will move east through
the flow during the period and work to suppress the upper high
southward, with stronger flow aloft also dropping further south as
our geopotential heights fall. This will allow a cold front
currently laid out from KS to the upper Great Lakes to progress
southeastward, reaching KY on Thursday, but slowing or stalling at
that point. Surface moisture will increase as west southwest low
level flow carries in higher dew points ahead of the front, and
upper level moisture will increase as convection injects it and
it's also helped by the approach of the second shortwave trough.
The combination of the front, the approaching shortwave trough,
and higher atmospheric moisture will work together to provide an
increase in showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast
Wednesday night and Thursday. At this time, details of the
convective precip are still uncertain and the forecast focuses
more on general trends. Precipitable water approaching or
exceeding 2" moving into the region ahead of the front could
support locally heavy rainfall.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 609 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
The models are in generally good agreement for the majority of
the extended portion of the forecast. Ridging starts out over the
southeastern CONUS as well as the Desert Southwest, while faster
and progressive flow dominates across the northern half of the
CONUS. A notable short wave trough will be aligned from the upper
Great Lakes through the middle Mississippi Valley. This feature
will cruise through the Ohio Valley and eventually New England by
Friday. Troughing will be maintained across the Mississippi Valley
Friday into Saturday, as additional short wave energy moves along
the north central CONUS. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low will
propagate onshore over the Pacific Northwest. As this feature
swings east, more prominent ridging will take hold downstream
across the southeastern CONUS late this weekend and into early
next week.
Sensible weather will feature an active start across eastern
Kentucky on Thursday night, with a frontal boundary already in the
area and convection likely ongoing. The highest probabilities
will occur north of KY-80, with perhaps a slightly slower trend
seen in the latest model guidance. PWATs will peak near 2", along
with the surface boundary aligning more parallel with the mid and
upper level flow. As such, some locally heavy rainers remain a
possibility. As instability wanes and the overall forcing
diminish, convective coverage should gradually lessen overnight
Thursday night.
This frontal boundary will linger across our southern locales on
Friday, with a resurgence of likely PoPs seen generally along and
southeast of KY-80. Highs will retreat closer to normal
temporarily. We will still be under the influence of weaker
troughing aloft on Saturday. Enough moisture will linger to allow
for additional diurnally driven convection. Similar to Friday,
higher PoPs will be favored across our southeast. From Sunday
through Tuesday, ridging will be building in aloft, keeping
convective coverage more limited. Unfortunately, this will also
mean heat and humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
Southwest winds of around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts,
will begin to subside under VFR conditions heading into this
evening. Ceilings will gradually lower overnight and continue to
do so Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms preceding a cold front
will begin to work into the area around and after 06Z. PROB30 and
TEMPO groups are in the TAFs to highlight this threat.
Thunderstorm chances are on the low side given the time of day;
SYM and IOB are the only TAF sites carrying a PROB30 for TS.
Flight categories will drop into MVFR from the northwest towards
the end of the TAF period, with better chances of convection
working southeast after 18z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL/HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 2:13 PM EDT---------------
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