Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1197 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE273
AWUS01 KWNH 041627
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ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042100-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Areas affected...Southern MS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 041626Z - 042100Z
SUMMARY...Some increase in the coverage of heavy showers and
thunderstorms is expected over the next few hours. Additional
pockets of flash flooding will be possible.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with radar trends
show some uptick and expansion of convection across southern MS,
with some localize backbuilding and cell-training noted over the
last hour. The convection is focusing along a well-defined axis of
low to mid-level moisture convergence in close vicinity of a
surface trough, and mid-level low center over the north-central
Gulf of America.
MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are noted along with PWs near
2.25 inches. Some modest easterly shear is noted over the central
Gulf Coast region given the placement of the mid-level low over
the Gulf and the subtropical ridge to the north. This is
supporting some localized organization of some of the convective
cells.
Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the strongest cells, and the latest HRRR and RRFS solutions
support some spotty 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals going through late
this afternoon. This will support some additional potential for
areas of flash flooding, and especially in vicinity of the more
urbanized areas.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31548931 31318858 30878823 30338834 30258913
30608978 31029026 31459012
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1197 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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