LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 3:35 AM EDT386
FXUS63 KLMK 050735
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
335 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Heat Advisory continues into this afternoon
* Temperatures will again be hot today, with afternoon highs just a
couple of degrees lower than Friday
* A weak cold front will increase the chance of isolated to
scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
ending our stretch of hot conditions across the region by the
end of the weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Atmosphere a little more frisky over our region earlly this
morning...with satellite and radar showing some modestly growing
cells along an axis from Washington County IN to Louisville to
southern Bullitt County KY. One or two of the high-res models did
pick up on this activity, so leaned a bit more heavily on them for
the near term. Complex well to our north and northeast seems to be
staying up in that region for now. Seeing a little more southward
push over far NE IN, but not sure that will continue on that
trajectory all the way to our Bluegrass zones. Likely will maintain
the Heat Advisory as is.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Continuing to watch showers and storms over southern MI and a
recent line developing in western OH this hour. GOES Sounder
data is keeping the peak precipitable water axis over northern
IN/southern MI into NW Ohio, so expect these storms will
continue trending east southeastward. There is a small pool of
higher CAPE over eastern IN and western OH, per that sounder
data. Evening forecaster mentioned we could see some development
along the western edge of any storms moving into western OH. A
few more of the late running 00Z hi-res models are showing a
line of showers/storms into our SE IN/Northern KY counties by
morning, so see no reason to lower pops there.
What those storms do for our area could greatly impact the ongoing
Heat Advisory. Running a blend of NBM data with several of those hi-
res models gives high temperatures in the low-mid 90s range this
afternoon in our northest zones, with heat indices in the 99-104
range. Points along and west of I-65 would peak in the mid to upper
90s with heat indices generally around 105. In addition, outflows
left behind by the potential morning wave of storms should serve as
focus for new development in the afternoon, in addition to the
backdoor cold front dropping down from the north and northeast. Some
of these could linger into the evening hours as well.
As for the strength of these storms...feel the morning wave should
mostly be elevated. Cannot rule out some brief gusty winds and will
be able to monitor upstream obs over IN/OH to see if any winds can
get down into our SE IN/northern KY areas. For the afternoon wave,
we should have several pockets of higher instability and DCAPE to
warrant damaging wind potential given in latest SPC Outlook. Best
chance for this potential runs from roughly 3-10 PM this
afternoon/evening. Again, wind likely is the biggest threat here,
with nearly unidirectional afternoon shear profiles, and mostly a
northwesterly direction at that. Machine learning guidance favors
this time frame as well. As for locations, pretty much east of a
Corydon to Etown to Campbellsville line has the better chances.
As for the Heat Advisory in place, will be watching those storms up
over southern MI/northern IN to see if they will get into our region
by daybreak. Will wait a few more hours before making any decisions
to trim that up.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Sunday into at least Monday, most of the area should see northerly
to northeasterly winds, bringing a "cool"down to more normal
temperatures for early September. By Tuesday the surface high
bringing that cool down shifts into the NE US and we see a quick
southerly return flow for midweek. Ridging builds in aloft as well,
so temperatures will rebound just as quickly above normal.
Our next cool front could move into the region Wednesday night into
Thursday time frame. Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) has quite a
bit of spread for temperatures and rain chances in that period and
continuing to close out the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Still looking at a potential for storms currently over southern MI
to move southeast and backbuild over IN. These cells may survive
into KLEX by mid morning, so have added a short prob30 group there.
More likely by mid afternoon we will see scattered storms develop
across the region, as a cold front approaches. Storm coverage should
diminish quickly with sunset and winds will become more northerly
this evening. Model profiles do show some stratus development early
Sunday morning along the I-64 corridor, so have shown that in this
set of TAFs.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 3:35 AM EDT---------------
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