JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:43 PM EDT282
FXUS63 KJKL 102243
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
643 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather will last through
Thursday.
- Hotter conditions will make a comeback as we move into the
weekend, and then last into next week.
- The next significant chance of rain is not until the middle of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
Any of the sprinkles and perhaps a light shower from early have
mostly dissipated this late afternoon hour. We are left with a
mix of sun and clouds, with HREF showing these clouds diminishing
in coverage through evening. This will leave us with mostly clear
to eventually clear skies through the night. There remains some
question on fog coverage tonight, but given the moisture in place
from recent rainfall and diurnally limited day there is a good
chance for at least river valley fog. Outside of this it will be a
quiet night and no big changes needed this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
The last clouds and some sprinkles associated with the
extratropical remnants of what was once tropical system Beryl are
dissipating over the area late today. This will leave us with
mainly clear skies tonight as surface high pressure builds in from
the southwest. The high will drift to the northeast and remain
our dominating surface feature through the short term period.
Aloft, a positively tilted trough from the mid Mississippi Valley
northeast over the Great Lakes will move very little, but will
weaken during the short term period. That being the case, its
influence to generate convective precip will remain to our north
and west, and we will remain dry tonight through Thursday night.
With fairly high relative humidity to start tonight, skies
clearing, and winds diminishing, valley fog is expected overnight.
Will look for it again on Thursday night, but to a lesser extent
as there will be more warming from abundant sunshine during the
preceding day on Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
The large scale flow pattern in the extended will begin with surface
ridging in place over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, the upper
Mississippi Valley. A broad and fairly flat ridge aloft is forecast
to be situated over the Gulf of Mexico to start the period. The
subtropical ridge is progged to be in place over the eastern Atlantic
off the east coast of the CONUS. Southwesterly flow off of this
ridge will lead to persistent shower and storm activity up and down
the east coast, as the tropical moisture interacts with a stalled
out frontal boundary that will be in place just inland from the
eastern seaboard. Further west, general but weak troughiness is
going to be in place over the western third of the CONUS. This
troughy pattern will be displaced to the east Friday and Saturday,
however, as strengthening ridging aloft moves onshore from the
Pacific Ocean. This will lead to dry and hot weather across the
desert southwest and areas further east, as the ridge marches
eastward.
The persistent ridging will lead to hot and dry weather across our
area for most of the extended, with uncomfortable heat expected into
the middle of next week. A few weak systems passing by to our north
and south may allow a few showers and storms to affect portions of
the area Monday and Tuesday. However, we should not see another good
chance of rain until Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a fairly potent
area of low pressure moves through the region to our north. The
frontal boundary associated with this system will have plenty of
moisture to work with on its eastward trek, as the subtropical ridge
moves a bit closer the southeastern CONUS, and pumps ample warm
moist air off the Gulf northward into the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. Daily high temperatures will max out in the lower 90s, with
nightly lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected for most
locations.
There are no major concerns in the extended portion of the forecast
at this time, but we will continue to monitor the extent of the hot
temperatures next week. At this time, it appears that heat index
values will max out in the 90s across the area, with a some
locations perhaps reaching the upper 90s at time Monday through
Wednesday. An isolated location or two may even reach 100 Tuesday or
Wednesday, but nothing widespread is on tap at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
Isolated to scattered showers were lingering at the start of the
period, mainly north of the Cumberland drainage basin. They were
generally light, but the most significant ones were still
producing very localized sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, conditions
were generally VFR, although low end VFR ceilings were prevalent.
As time goes by, the showers will become more sparse this
afternoon, and by about 22Z they should dry up and leave VFR
conditions area wide. Most clouds will also dry up this evening.
With fairly high relative humidity to start the night, radiation
fog should develop in valleys and grow in breadth and depth with
time, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. At this time,
it is not forecast to affect TAF sites, but this is not a high
confidence forecast. Should the fog become widespread enough to
affect any TAF sites, the most prone locations would be KSME and
KLOZ. What fog there is will dissipate after sunrise on Thursday,
with VFR conditions expected area wide by around 14Z and lasting
through the end of the period.
West to northwest winds gusting near 20 mph in some locations this
afternoon will diminish this evening, enabling the fog to develop.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:43 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
