LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 6:56 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation and Mesoscale Discussions...044
FXUS63 KLMK 271056
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
656 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
...Updated Aviation and Mesoscale Discussions...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Early morning cluster of storms will dive south toward south-
central KY. Areas east of I-65 expected to remain dry this
morning.
* A cold front will be sitting across our area today, and will fire
off additional isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and
storms south of the WK/BG Parkways. Best precip chances in our
area will be near Lake Cumberland. Severe weather risk remains
low.
* Temperatures gradually warm up through the weekend. We expect
daytime highs mainly in the upper 80s this weekend with upper 80s
and lower 90s expected for much of next week.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Patchy dense fog has developed over a portion of southern IN within
the last hour, causing vis obs to drop to as low as a quarter mile.
Issued a SPS for this patchy fog until 12z, but may need another one
if it persists longer than expected. This area received a decent
amount of rainfall overnight, and the combination of clearing
cloudcover and light winds have supported fog development.
Conditions should improve shortly after sunrise.
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Early this morning, a cold front is shifting south through the
region, with scattered storm clusters firing up from I-65 westward
into southern Illinois along the boundary. These storms are feeding
off lingering mixed-layer instability, but increasing CIN, meager
lapse rates, and weak shear parameters are keeping these storms a
bit more unorganized now. Through the rest of the early morning
hours, expect this cluster west of I-65 to continue a southward
trajectory toward Bowling Green. CAMs have been struggling with this
convection, so there is lower confidence than usual on if we'll see
this cluster make it to Bowling Green or not. Will continue to
monitor over the coming hours, but have adjusted the forecast grids
to account for this possibility.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
A cold front will be bisecting our area today, with a mostly dry
start to the daylight hours. We should see some clearing of clouds
through the the morning and early afternoon hours. Sfc high pressure
will be east of the area, leading to southerly flow and increased
WAA ahead (south) of the sfc boundary. This will lead to decent
warming and destabilization again today, with temps peaking in the
mid to upper 80s. As the front sluggishly pushes east today, we
expect to see isolated to widely scattered storms to redevelop along
the boundary across portions of KY, mainly south of the WKY/BG
Parkways, with the highest precip chances near Lake Cumberland this
afternoon and evening. Model soundings suggest we could have some
steeper low level lapse rates, but meager shear will keep any storms
from becoming organized. Precip chances end for our area by 00z this
evening.
Dry weather takes over for the entire forecast area by tonight due
to the post-frontal airmass and sfc high pressure filtering in. Not
expecting a strong shift with temps as this front lacks any
substantial cooler air behind it, but slightly drier air will help
keep our dewpoints lower.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
===== Friday into the Weekend =====
The upper trough will remain over the eastern US on Friday, but is
expected to shift east by Saturday night. The upper pattern becomes a
bit more flattened by Sunday, but will begin to see low-amplitude
ridging setting up over the Upper Midwest. Dry and sunny weather is
expected for Friday and the weekend as sfc high pressure builds
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s
on Friday, but could warm slightly into the lower 90s by Sunday.
Despite this slight uptick in temps, dewpoints look to remain on the
more comfortable side and in the 60s each day.
===== Monday through Wednesday =====
We'll continue the warming and dry trend into the first half of next
week, with the upper pattern featuring flattened ridging as troughs
pass by across southern Canada. Confidence continues to grow on
seeing above normal temps next week, but the NBM bias continues to
output forecast highs up into the mid 90s next week. The 100-member
LREF is not as impressed with temps next week, giving only a 20-30%
chance for temps to exceed 90F each afternoon. We'll likely end up
seeing most areas hit the upper 80s and low 90s next week, with
perhaps our urban islands creeping a few degrees warmer into the mid
90s next week. Heat indices will mostly hover around the upper 90s
next week as dewpoints sit in the upper 60s, but we'll begin to see
a slightly better moisture fetch by Wednesday to creep dewpoints
into the low to mid 70s, leading to some slightly elevated heat
indices.
Extended Forecast Discussion...
Looking beyond Wednesday, the long term ensembles and AI Ensemble
guidance suggest the upper level pattern will undergo some changes.
The upper level ridge that is expected to bring dry/warm weather for
much of the week is expected to break down as a series of mid-level
waves push across the CONUS. While the details are not overly
clear, it does look like that we'll have some passing upper troughs
that will drive some cold frontal boundaries through the region.
While much of next week will feature above normal temperatures and
below normal precipitation, we expect temps to come down a bit to
near normal with precipitation going up to normal or slightly above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
A MVFR stratus deck has developed over SDF within the last hour, and
is expected to continue for a few hours at the start of the forecast
period. Additionally, patchy dense fog has impacted HNB with VLIFR
vis. Fog will remain a possibility there for a few more hours as
well. Otherwise, after the impacts this morning, expect to see VFR
conditions for all terminals for the rest of today and tonight.
Winds will switch from W to N flow by this evening as a cold front
swings through the area. A few isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible
for RGA, but confidence is not high enough to mention in TAF at this
time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...CJP
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 6:56 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation and Mesoscale Discussions...---------------
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