NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 28, 5:00 AM AST762
WTNT44 KNHC 280833
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
500 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026
There has been little change with Dolly overnight. The storm is
producing a small area of deep convection near and to the northeast
of the center, but dry air is entraining into the southern half of
the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in
agreement with last night's ASCAT data and the latest satellite
estimates. Satellite images also suggest that the low-level
circulation could be losing some definition.
The storm is moving rapidly westward at about 21 kt, and that motion
is expected to continue as it remains located to the south of a
strong subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies on the
fast side of the guidance, as most of the models often have a
slow bias for weak systems in this region.
The combination of increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry
air, and Dolly's fast forward speed should limit any notable
intensification. In fact, all of the reliable models show the storm
gradually losing strength and degenerating into a trough of low
pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend.
Post-tropical positions are provided from 36-60 h given the risk of
gusty winds and heavy rainfall, however, it seems unlikely that
Dolly will have a closed circulation at those times.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 14.5N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 15.1N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 15.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 16.6N 57.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/0600Z 17.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z 18.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 28, 5:00 AM AST---------------
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