CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 7:49 AM EDT803
FXUS61 KCLE 271149
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
749 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Weakening showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit the
area to the east this morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and embedded thunderstorms will exit the area this
morning, with isolated showers
2) Above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Shower activity, mainly across far northeast Ohio and northwest
PA early this morning, with embedded thunderstorms will move
east of the area during the early morning hours, with primarily
dry conditions expected across the forecast area through the
remainder of the morning. Additional showers and a few storms
may develop ahead of a slow moving cold front this afternoon,
primarily across the far southern and eastern portions of the
forecast area, but this activity would be fairly isolated if it
manifests. Severe risk is low given lack of deep layer flow, but
sufficient destabilization may result in a non-zero chance of
stronger brief updrafts that could result in a few strong wind
gusts.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
As ridging builds across the region this weekend into next week,
temperatures will be on the rise with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices in the mid 90s will
be possible during this time before the ridge flattens a bit
over the Great Lakes by mid/late week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A cold front will move across the area from northwest to
southeast through this afternoon, shifting winds to a more
west-northwest direction at 5-10kt. Out of the gate, there is
some patchy fog/mist across Northwest OH that will mix out by
14z. A few clouds between 1500-2500 feet are evident farther
east, though outside of ERI are unlikely to become a ceiling.
SCT-BKN cumulus around 4000-5000 feet is expected to develop
from near CLE-MFD points east-southeast this afternoon, with a
low risk for a few showers or storms to develop across
southeastern portions of our area as the cold front moves
through this afternoon. Maintained a PROB30 group for YNG for
this potential, with lower confidence precluding a TAF mention
elsewhere. Winds will be light tonight, but will shift to a more
east-northeast direction overnight at CLE, ERI, and possibly
TOL as a trough axis moves south off of Lake Erie. This trough
may bring a few sprinkles/showers and MVFR ceilings as it
pushes off the lake, and do bring an MVFR ceiling into ERI/CLE
early Friday morning. Otherwise, some fog may try developing
late tonight/early Friday farther inland. Confidence in that
is overall low, though do have a period of MVFR BR at YNG.
Outlook...Mainly VFR, but with patchy non-VFR possible in
fog/mist early in the mornings on Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front is crossing the lake this morning, shifting winds
to a more northwest direction. Winds of 10-15kt, briefly a bit
higher, will continue through early this afternoon before
briefly subsiding late this afternoon. Waves of 1 to 3 feet in
the open waters in southwest wind will be pushed towards the
lakeshore from Cleveland points northeast as winds shift with
the front. Winds shift more north-northeast at 10-15kt tonight
as a surface trough crosses the lake, building more 1 to 3 foot
waves, especially over the western and central basins. Winds and
waves are expected to remain a bit shy of advisory criteria, but
will be large enough to make conditions unpleasant for small
craft and to perhaps bring a moderate risk of rip currents to
the shoreline from Cleveland points west. Northeast winds will
remain brisk through a good portion of Friday before generally
favorable marine conditions arrive for the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 7:49 AM EDT---------------
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