CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:24 PM EDT803
FXUS61 KCLE 261824
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
224 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a cold front this evening and redevelop again Thursday
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may be possible across
Northwest Ohio this evening.
2) A much warmer weather pattern will develop this weekend into
early next week with temperatures rising into the 80s to around
90 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure centered near the Mid-Atlantic region this
morning is still in control our our weather. Today will be a
rather decent day for most of the area. Skies will start out
mostly sunny to partly cloudy but clouds will increase late in
the day ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.
A weak cold front approaching from the west will move into
Northwest Ohio this evening. A broken line of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along that cold front with
a few strong to severe storms possible, mainly for NWOH between
6 pm and 11 pm. For the thermodynamics ahead the front,
effective shear values will between 30-40 knots, MLCAPE values
between 1000-1500 J/kg, and downdraft CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. The
latest high-res model guidance in good agreement with the
potential of a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds
up to 60 mph as the main threat followed a less threat of large
hail up to the size of Quarters. The latest SPC severe weather
outlook today has Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, and Hancock Counties in
a slight risk (level 2 of 5). There is a marginal severe storm
risk (level 1 of 5) from Wyandot County Ohio northeast to the
Lake Erie Islands this evening. As the convection tracks
eastward late this evening, it will move into a stable
atmosphere and quickly dissipate before it reaches the I-71
corridor.
This slow moving front will be over NEOH and NWPA Thursday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
east of I-71 midday through the early afternoon before it moves
out of the area. Severe weather is not expected with any of the
storms on Thursday. A surface trough will southward across Lake
Erie Thursday evening through early Friday morning with a few
rain showers possible near the lakeshore.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A stretch of much warmer and nice weather will start Friday as
High pressure will builds southeastward across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. The overall weather pattern will transition
from an upper level to upper level ridging this weekend.
Eventually an upper level ridge of high pressure will develop
and stay over the Ohio Valley this weekend into early next week.
This weather pattern will favor above average temperature in the 80s
to around 90 degrees. Overnight low temps will be in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. By the next Monday night and Tuesday, a weak
frontal boundary will try to drift southward into our area and a
return of chance POPs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Scattered cumulus clouds of 4-5K are in place this afternoon. A
broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach
TOL towards 23Z and FDY towards 00Z. Included a 2 hour tempo for
thunderstorms at those sites. Conditions could drop to IFR in
heavy rain with gusts to 30-40 knots possible and isolated gusts
in excess of 50 knots. The line of thunderstorms is expected to
break up as it moves east so confidence is lower in the 03-06Z
time frame. Terminals in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania can expect
primarily scattered showers by late tonight. Precipitation
should be limited to an hour or two at any location with VFR
sct-bkn clouds around 4-7K into Thursday. Winds will tend to be
southwesterly at 5-10 knots this afternoon with infrequent gusts
to 20 knots. Winds will remain southwesterly tonight then shift
to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front on Thursday.
Outlook...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible
into Thursday at YNG/ERI. Non-VFR possible in low ceilings and
a few showers moving off of Lake Erie Thursday night into early
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to 10-20 knots tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. In addition, thunderstorms may approach
the western basin of Lake Erie this evening and may be strong to
severe between 6-10 PM. Thunderstorms should weaken in intensity
as they cross Lake Erie overnight but could still lead to
erratic wind and wave conditions. Winds shift to northerly
behind the front on Thursday night at 10-15 knots but are
expected to decrease quickly on Friday as high pressure builds
overhead. At this time we are not expected to reach Advisory
criteria but choppy conditions and a moderate risk of rip
currents could be possible. The trough passage across the lake
could be sufficient for waterspouts to develop. Generally good
marine conditions are expected for the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:24 PM EDT---------------
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