LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 7:38 PM EDT043
FXUS63 KLMK 222338
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday through
Tuesday.
* Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low rain chances return
by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Conditions are dry and partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. A weak
cold front has pushed into portions of northern and western KY early
this afternoon. A mid and upper level shortwave trough is digging
southeast over the Great Lakes, placing the Lower OH Valley in the
exit region of a 45-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet over the Midwest.
Low-level moisture continues to pool ahead of the cold front, with
sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is some drier
air aloft, which will limit convective coverage this afternoon (peak
PW axis of 1.4-1.5 inches in a relatively narrow corridor).
The lowest levels continue to gradually warm and destabilize, with
sfc temperatures in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE is forecast to reach
2000-2500 J/kg across central KY, along and south of the frontal
boundary. We are now seeing the beginnings of very isolated
convective initiation across SW Ohio and eastern KY this afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered convection should fill in further SW
along the cold front through mid-afternoon. Our highest PoPs (30-50%
chance) remain focused over the Bluegrass Region, with the 30%
contour stretching as far southwest as Bowling Green. Expect little,
if any, convection west of I-65, however.
The stronger mid-level flow streaming in from the NW will help boost
deep-layer shear to 25-30 kts this afternoon. This would be enough
for a loosely organized muticell cluster or two, again most likely
in the Bluegrass Region. While strong to severe storms should be
fairly sparse, the strongest cells will be capable of marginally
severe hail and wind. The main time frame for isolated to widely
scattered storms is 2-7 PM EDT.
The cold front pushes well southeast of the area tonight. High
pressure at the surface builds southeast over the Midwest through
Sunday. The arrival of cooler, drier air from the northwest will
make for a very pleasant end to the weekend. Temperatures will fall
into the low to mid 60s early Sunday morning. Sunday looks partly
sunny, with a building SCT cumulus field during the afternoon.
Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Early Monday morning,
temperatures are forecast to dip into the 55-60 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Mainly dry conditions continue into early next week. Monday looks
like a beautiful day, with relatively low humidity and afternoon
highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough
zipping through NW flow will move over the region late Monday.
However, a sfc warm front is forecast to set up to our southwest and
keep higher rain chances focused across portions of MO, AR, and TN.
Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s.
The latest model guidance pushes a warm front a little further north
into central KY by Wednesday. With the development of broad upper
level troughing, this could be enough for isolated to scattered
showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level
trough continues to amplify in tandem with a sfc low across the
Great Lakes heading into Thursday. This system should drag a cold
front through the region on Thursday, bringing at least a small
chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Wednesday through the
end of the forecast period. A few of our warmer spots may touch 90
on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
A cold front has pushed through the HNB/SDF/LEX TAF sites, and is
poised to make it through RGA/BWG shortly. In addition, scattered
thunderstorms have diminished with the loss of heating. So, the only
notable weather left this evening will be the gusty NW winds that
will hang on for another hour or two. Winds will then steadily drop
off overnight, with perhaps some fog development toward dawn. Models
continue to hint at some MVFR vis restrictions possible, however
drier air will be filtering in so confidence is not high in that
scenario. Stayed optimistic for now, and will continue to monitor.
VFR prevails into Sunday with steady NW winds continuing.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 7:38 PM EDT---------------
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