IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:05 PM EDT911
FXUS63 KIWX 161705
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
105 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon through
tonight. A few strong storms capable of gusty winds may be
possible south of US 24.
- Dry Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s.
- The next chances for rain and storms arrive Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, the severe weather and flooding risks
are very low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
While satellite and radar trends shows diminishing showers early
this afternoon, widely scattered showers and storms are expected
to redevelop this afternoon and evening, pivoting around the
axis of an area of low pressure centered over Lower Michigan.
While I can't completely rule out the chances for a strong to
severe storm this afternoon and evening south of US 24,
confidence is very low. Moderately instability is favorable for
thunderstorm development, but shear and lapse rates are poor.
This will likely end up being a similar scenario to yesterday
where clusters of storms may produce brief gusty winds but not
reach severe thresholds. CAMs show one final round of scattered
showers and storms this evening into tonight developing over
northwest Indiana with a weak trailing cold front, but rain and
storm chances will come to an end by daybreak Monday. Clouds are
expected to linger overnight and clearing will commence behind
the frontal passage.
There is high confidence that our active weather pattern finally
comes to an end! Monday and Tuesday will be dry as an area of high
pressure builds into and across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will
be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Dewpoints on Monday and Tuesday during peak diurnal heating hours
will only be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel much more
refreshing than our past week of low to mid 70s dewpoints!
As troughing builds over the eastern US and an upper level ridge
builds over the western US, another chance for rain and storms comes
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front slides from northwest
to southeast through our forecast area. As of now the risks for
flooding and severe weather are low, but I would not be surprised if
our forecast area is added into future SPC outlooks as Wednesday
gets closer. Particularly, along and south of US 30 may be at risk
for isolated damaging wind gusts Wednesday as the timing of the
frontal passage coincides with peak diurnal heating, although
confidence is low at this time.
High pressure then builds into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions
again by the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures
remain near to just slightly below normal with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue through the morning as an MCV crosses the area. Thunder
coverage is quite limited given lack of instability so will
leave thunder out of the TAF's for now. Models continue to
struggle with ceiling heights this morning but starting to see
some 1 kft ceilings observed near KSBN so will hold low-end MVFR
there through the morning with some IFR not out of the question.
For KFWA...better chance for hovering right around 3 kft through
the morning. Both sites trend to VFR during the afternoon. A few
additional showers/storms are possible at KFWA as a weak cold
front passes but confidence in coverage is too low to mention in
the TAF's at this time.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:05 PM EDT---------------
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