LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:30 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...821
FXUS64 KLIX 131830
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
130 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs
in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index
values generally running in the mid 100s to near 110 through the
end of the work week and then likely climbing into the lower
110's this weekend. Heat Advisories are in place for today,
likely Friday and Heat Warnings likely Saturday, Sunday, and
into the new week. Stay tuned. The impact of the afternoon highs
will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal
overnight lows; we just won't have a chance to cool off.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
So, what's new? Not really anything! We still have the high
pressure over the area behaving the same as we've been discussing
the past several days. The high pressure is intensifying and
continues to drive a slight temperature increase and little to no
rain.
The important message in the short term is the elevated Heat
Index, or feels like temperature, that will reach levels prompting
issuance of Heat Advisories. This afternoon and tomorrow from 11am
to 8pm we will see the Heat Index around 110 degrees. Make sure
you're drinking lots of water and finding ways to stay cool.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge
stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western
Atlantic. That said there is a very subtle weakness in the globals
over the southern Mississippi River Valley. This will NOT shake
the heat, but may help with a little less subsidence for a very
slight uptick in convective coverage during the diurnal cycle. By
this point, several days where highs in the 90s occurred with
several likely nearly rain free days, the soil moisture will
continue to decrease, which will help daily highs warm into the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees later in the period. PWATs are still
forecast to increase to around 2.0" which suggests better
moisture quality with more limited mixing leading to higher
surface relative humidity values. Bottom line here is with the
higher temps and higher humidity, "feels like" temps will
probably reach the warning criteria.
Going through the end of the forecast period and perhaps slightly
beyond, globals are struggling a bit with the overall synoptic
pattern in terms of timing, however, both the ECM/GFS and respective
ensembles show an upper level trough trying to dig either over the
Central Plains or over the east coast midweek next week, which
hopefully suppress and weaken the eastern extent of the H5 ridge.
[Frye/Schlotz]
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
VFR conditions across the area through the forecast period. High
pressure suppressing convection should keep skies clear and
conditions at VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Generally benign marine conditions through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control from start to finish.
Isolated nightly convection will be possible, especially over the
offshore waters where locally higher winds and seas may reside
around showers and storms with perhaps a waterspout or two.
Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10
knots outside of convection. Some variability in direction will
occur through the period as the center of high pressure evolves
and moves. (Frye/Schlotz)
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:30 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
