[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 14, 22:32z for portions of PAH

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 14, 22:32z for portions of PAH

132 
WUUS01 KWNS 142234
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026

VALID TIME 142000Z - 151200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   40319229 40289413 40589537 41239587 41649570 42009529
       42019223 41999095 41538980 41058969 40629002 40489065
       40319229 
0.02   38107853 37847787 37337703 37017711 36897752 37147816
       37717866 37967870 38107853 
0.05   41499505 41739471 41579297 41359156 40889138 40569160
       40599364 40769483 41209515 41499505 
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   40059494 40279556 40789592 41329601 41819584 42159531
       42419435 42459233 42019133 41509091 40739099 40289122
       40009197 39979321 40009421 40059494 
0.05   36990262 36970338 37220395 37950492 38840523 40560541
       41000547 41710512 41860450 41820388 41670355 41340318
       39360182 38610163 38110164 37610179 37290204 36990262
0.05   36957953 37547892 38157871 38197820 37977740 37607682
       36897592 36217575 35857605 35807670 36027796 36457931
       36657958 36957953 
0.15   36947929 37497877 38067854 38047822 37827741 37407719
       36907726 36597754 36517809 36587887 36647938 36947929
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   38860525 40320540 40990550 41380515 41500455 41170368
       41020269 41280084 41899867 42219775 42739591 42929333
       42728934 42448804 40658510 39778249 39197975 38607725
       38057647 37377595 36487549 35517583 34867656 35038031
       34058223 34718392 35168426 36258423 37288577 38548797
       38888964 39179150 38979332 38569527 37939662 35590094
       34230230 33750289 33940347 35070366 36980410 37960492
       38860525 
0.05   36261623 37721573 38001389 37631288 37111254 36301253
       35181313 34391386 33781457 33951524 34461572 35451610
       36261623 
0.05   45457627 43917304 42817154 42337121 41977132 41717147
       41537216 41537304 41677389 41937462 44427803 
0.15   40039043 39989331 40039486 40319557 40809591 41309600
       41809585 42159530 42329436 42339196 42169072 41938967
       41558875 40838862 40388896 40198936 40039043 
0.15   36957929 37277860 37927807 37837741 37377662 36537675
       36327719 36257815 36497909 36677940 36957929 
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   36957929 37497877 38067854 37837741 37377662 36537675
       36327719 36257815 36497909 36677940 36957929 
SLGT   41809585 42159530 42329436 42339196 41938967 41558875
       40838862 40388896 40198936 40039043 39989331 40039486
       40319557 40809591 41309600 41809585 
MRGL   37721573 38001389 37631288 37111254 36301253 35181313
       34391386 33781457 33951524 34461572 35451610 36261623
       37721573 
MRGL   41710512 41860450 41820388 41670355 41070299 41020269
       41280084 42739591 42929333 42728934 42448804 40658510
       39778249 38607725 38057647 37377595 36487549 35517583
       34867656 35038031 34058223 34718392 35168426 36258423
       37288577 38548797 39179150 38979332 38569527 37939662
       35590094 34230230 33750289 33940347 36980410 37950492
       38860525 40990550 41710512 
MRGL   45177568 43917304 42817154 42337121 41717147 41537216
       41537304 41677389 41937462 44097758 
TSTM   29608821 30278834 30918872 31778902 32928886 34058848
       34568848 35408892 36588976 37139060 37689167 37869222
       38159335 38079503 37099707 35279949 32950131 29100212
       99999999 45407565 45207469 43557144 42437014 41687048
       41157125 40887227 41087382 42097579 44077818 99999999
       45761871 46021821 46541747 46961719 47411719 47751742
       47711818 47311895 46641984 46132066 45572079 45362029
       45761871 99999999 28920096 30949891 31879810 32229709
       32189580 31959489 31549457 30619461 30279448 30029422
       29849380 29719288 29589205 29319136 29049097 28659066
       99999999 32161661 34371701 35511748 36561820 37441886
       37981952 39062026 39612037 40341996 41481889 41981827
       42221819 42621832 42841865 42961901 42902015 42812053
       42482134 42072178 41432224 41152240 40962266 40862311
       41152381 41572406 42882425 44462316 45042263 45562246
       46062257 46612281 47802347 48402423 49332534 99999999
       49519368 48219540 46429874 45819923 45159928 44449895
       44109860 44079844 44529779 44859662 44809511 44179050
       43518803 43088694 41988528 41198460 40938428 40768379
       40718271 40638049 40237664 39697350 99999999 30861168
       32651183 33351219 33631269 33331336 31931422 99999999
       49590830 48840850 47850802 47020728 46420668 46240554
       46480528 47380539 49570512 

&&
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25
N DAN 25 ENE LYH  0 - CHO 25 NNW RIC 40 NW ORF 35 WNW ECG 30 ESE
RZZ 30 S AVC 15 ESE DAN 10 NNW DAN 25 N DAN

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15
E TQE 10 NNE DNS 20 SSW FOD 25 SE ALO 35 WSW RFD 15 NNW MMO 30 NNE
BMI  0 - BMI 30 NE SPI 40 WNW SPI 20 NE CDJ 20 N STJ 15 N FNB 25 W
SDA  0 - OMA 15 E TQE

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 NNE DRA 45 NE P38 15 ESE CDC 45 SSW BCE 30 NW GCN 45 E IGM 50
ESE EED 15 NE BLH 40 NW BLH 65 NNE TRM 55 NE DAG 30 SSW DRA 75 NNE
DRA

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNW CYS 25 SW TOR 15 WSW BFF 15 S BFF  0 - SNY 15 ESE SNY 15 NW
LBF 35 NE SUX 15 S MCW 15 WNW JVL 25 SSW RAC 25 S FWA 25 SE CMH 20
SW DCA 15 S NHK 35 NNE ORF 40 ENE ECG 25 NNW HSE 30 ESE EWN 40 ESE
CLT 40 SE AND 60 NNW AHN 50 SSW TYS 30 NNW TYS 40 ENE BWG 45 NW
EVV 45 ENE COU 20 NE SZL 35 SW OJC 35 SW EMP 25 ESE BGD 35 W PVW
50 SSE CVS 30 SSW CVS 25 SSE TAD 30 SW PUB 30 W COS 25 SSE LAR 40
NNW CYS

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WNW MSS 25 N RUT 25 S CON 10 WSW BOS  0 - PVD 15 NNW GON 25 N
BDR  0 - POU 20 NNE MSV 65 N ROC

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MOB 30 S MOB
30 WNW MOB 30 NE PIB 40 N MEI 20 SE TUP 25 NE TUP 15 S MKL 45 SSW
CGI 25 NNW POF 30 S VIH 10 NNW TBN 40 SSE SZL 35 NE CNU 25 N PNC
15 WSW CSM 50 NNE BGS 65 S 6R6 ...CONT... 50 NW MSS 20 NNE MSS  0
- LCI 55 N HYA 10 W HYA 15 E BID 35 SSW GON 30 N JFK 10 SE BGM 70
NNW ROC ...CONT...  0 - PDT  0 - ALW 20 SW PUW 15 NNW PUW 20 SE
GEG 10 NNE GEG 30 WNW GEG 25 E EPH 35 E YKM 30 S YKM 20 E DLS 45
ESE DLS  0 - PDT ...CONT... 30 S DRT 60 S BWD 25 S SEP 40 N ACT 25
WSW TYR 30 SSW GGG 25 NNE LFK 45 S LFK 35 NW BPT 15 WNW BPT 15 ESE
BPT 35 SE LCH 15 SSE 7R4 45 WSW HUM 40 SSW HUM 65 S HUM ...CONT...
30 SSW CZZ 35 SSW DAG 15 SE NID 55 S BIH 25 WNW BIH 70 SSE TVL 20
NW TVL 35 WNW RNO 60 N RNO 70 NW WMC 45 SSW REO 30 SSW REO 25 W
REO 55 SSE BNO 45 S BNO 50 NNE LKV 45 N LKV 30 NE LMT  0 - LMT 10
NNE MHS 10 SSW MHS 30 SW MHS 50 SW MHS 20 NE ACV 15 SSE CEC 35 S
OTH 25 N EUG 20 ENE SLE  0 - PDX 35 N PDX 25 S OLM 20 S CLM 35 NNE
UIL 105 NNW UIL ...CONT... 65 N INL 45 SSE ROX 35 S JMS 45 WNW ABR
45 WSW ABR 35 W HON 25 SW HON 25 SSW HON 25 ENE HON 35 SSW VVV 15
N RWF 20 NW VOK 40 N MKE 35 W MKG 20 SE AZO 35 ENE FWA 30 W FDY 20
SSW FDY 15 SW MFD 15 WNW PIT 10 E CXY 50 ESE NEL ...CONT... 95 SSW
TUS 55 SSE PHX 10 WSW PHX 40 WNW PHX 45 NW GBN 55 SSE YUM
...CONT... 100 NE HVR 60 ENE HVR 70 WSW GGW 90 SSW GGW 40 W MLS 20
SE MLS 30 E MLS 35 WNW GDV 105 NNE OLF

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 14, 22:32z for portions of PAH

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