MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 12:05 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...477
FXUS64 KMOB 110505
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1205 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
- Isolated to scattered storms are expected through Tuesday.
- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected through
Tuesday, increasing mid week on.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches
the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging off
the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf Coast,
westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface high over
the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in response,
with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20 values less
than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and Lower
Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass over the
forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon the model.
Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over the northeast
side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry, subsidence caused day
Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop
to isolated, mainly over areas southeast of I-65 as moisture levels
drop and upper subsidence returns and builds east a bit, even as the
upper high shifts west.
Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture levels,
especially over the western half of the forecast area along with
upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building upper high. High
temperatures away from the coast rise from the 92-97 degree range
Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range Thursday. Along the
coast, high temperatures around 90 are expected through mid week.
Heat indices rise from the 100-107 degree range over most of the
forecast area Tuesday rise into the 105 to 110 degree range
Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday, though
the extent is hard to pin down at this time.
Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the
northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central
Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains in
response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus,
increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts
west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper building
east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence over the
region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered at
best over the forecast area into the coming week. Temperatures see a
small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat Indices..
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less
organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of
the week, especially over our Florida beaches.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions prevail throughout the period, outside of any
storms this evening. Coverage of storms over the next 2 hours
should remain inland from the TAF sites. Light and variable winds
are expected overnight. Another round of isolated storms is
expected by Tuesday afternoon. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 93 76 94 / 0 30 0 10
Pensacola 78 92 79 93 / 0 20 0 10
Destin 79 91 80 91 / 0 10 0 10
Evergreen 75 94 75 94 / 10 30 0 10
Waynesboro 75 97 75 98 / 0 20 10 10
Camden 75 93 75 94 / 10 20 0 0
Crestview 74 95 75 95 / 0 30 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 12:05 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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