LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 7:26 PM EDT656
FXUS63 KLMK 092326
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
726 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Strong to severe storms through the early overnight hours,
several of which could be capable of producing tornadoes.
Locally heavy rainfall and damaging straight line wind gusts
also possible with storms.
* Breezy conditions expected on Wednesday, with sustained winds of
10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph.
* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for late
week into next weekend. Worsening drought conditions are
possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Strong to severe storms continue across the region this evening.
Recent observations denote the warm frontal boundary near or just
north of the Ohio River within the CWA. Several storms have taken on
supercellular characteristics and exhibited low-level rotation, with
reports of rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds coming in on many
of these. The most potent storms up to this point have been across
western KY and southwestern IN where tornadoes have been
observed/reported and the overall low-level shear has been
strongest.
The best low level shear environment is quickly advancing eastward
this evening, and storms that can capitalize on this environment will
be capable of producing tornadoes. Appears we will have one final
'wave' of convection that will push through, starting around 2330-
00z in our western CWA. Guidance has been a bit aggressive with
convection developing along this wave across southwestern KY and
pushing NNE into our region, though recent radar obs show this
activity struggling. This will be closely monitored over the next
several hours. Most activity should weaken and/or push northeast of
the CWA by or shortly after midnight EDT.
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Tornado Watch 516 has been issued and covers nearly the entire CWA
through the first half of the overnight hours. Already dealing with
one longer lived supercell near the KY/TN border but additional
supercells are anticipated to develop and have the potential to
produce tornadoes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Active weather is expected to unfold here shortly this afternoon and
continue into the early overnight hours. Beryl was centered over
extreme northeastern Arkansas around 18z and has steadily been
moving to the northeast. A surface warm front has steadily been
lifting northward ahead of Beryl and is draped across portions of
central Kentucky.
Scattered showers and storms have already developed across the
region. There is quite a bit of effective bulk shear (40-50kts) and
we have observed several supercellular structures/characteristics in
the convection due to this shear. Warmer mid-level temps have helped
suppress convection from reaching their 'highest' potential, though
increasing low-level moisture is helping to erode that cap. So
expect to see an upward trend in strong/severe activity as we get
later into the afternoon. Additionally, low level shear and helicity
will steadily increase as Beryl approaches, increasing our tornado
threat as we go into the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms
that form near the warm front will also benefit from enhanced low
level shear and helicity from backed surface winds, increasing the
tornado potential.
The final wave/round of showers and storms should push northeast out
of our region around or shortly after midnight. Stratus will
eventually build in behind the precipitation and result in a cloudy
start to the day tomorrow. Clouds should gradually break up and
clear through the day but they will certainly have an impact on
temperatures, keeping them a bit below climo normals. Gradient winds
will also be gusty at times, likely ranging from 20mph to 30mph
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Wednesday Night - Thursday night...
Winds really slacken off Wednesday night as the pressure gradient
relaxes and weak high pressure builds over the region. With
temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s early Thursday, areas of
fog will be possible (especially in areas that see heavier rainfall
today into tonight).
An upper level trough gradually drops southeast from the Midwest
through Thursday night and will bring briefly deeper moisture. There
is only a slight chance for a shower in southern IN and western
portions of KY Thursday afternoon/evening. Most will stay dry with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.
Friday through Monday...
A much more typical summertime pattern will return for the end of
this week into the weekend. A broad area of positive height
anomalies over the Atlantic will link up with ridging over the
western CONUS, leading to height/thickness increases across the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys into the weekend. This will lead to
progressively warming temperatures, with highs back into the 90s for
the weekend.
Hot and humid summertime conditions will linger into next week. Some
weak moisture return looks possible ahead of a trough moving
southeast through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Some isolated
shower/storm chances will be possible. However, the medium range
continues to look hot and relatively dry for the most part.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms as part of the remnants of Beryl
are still anticipated to move across the region this evening. The
latest high resolution guidance has a line of thunderstorms moving
across the area starting around 00z and moving to the east outside
of the coverage area by 7z.
After the thunderstorm line leaves the region later tonight,
IFR/MVFR cigs will filter in from the west toward dawn tomorrow and
persist through a good part of the day. Winds will also pick up out
of the west or WSW as Beryl departs to the northeast. Wind gusts
between 15 and 25 kts will decrease toward 00z Thursday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MK
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 7:26 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
