PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 9:14 PM EDT991
FXUS61 KPBZ 080114
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
914 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the latest forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic shower and thunderstorms chances, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours, continue into early next week.
Gusty wind and locally heavy rain will remain possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
With sunset and loss of daytime heating, convective coverage
has waned some overall. That said, an additional vort max
embedded within broad troughing is expected to reinvigorate
showers and thunderstorms after midnight tonight. Any severe
threat will be low with the nocturnally stable profile, though
the column remains quite juicy, and longer deep layer moisture
transport vectors support a slight uptick in PWAT values inching
back up to 1.8-1.9" within southwesterly flow, so these will
likely be efficient rainfall producers and pose some additional
flood threat especially if they move over areas that were hit
hard on Friday.
These showers/storms are likely to continue into early Saturday
as the shortwave completes its passage. After a lull in the
activity for part of the day, a stronger shortwave within the
trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region late
Saturday into Saturday night, with additional showers and
thunderstorms, along with the continued potential for gusty wind
and heavy downpours.
Guidance continues to trend toward a dry forecast on Sunday,
with brief shortwave ridging behind the stronger Saturday
shortwave. Dry air and some capping should preclude convection
through the day.
The broad trough is reestablished across the Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley region early next week, with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances returning. Currently, machine learning
indicates a greater potential for severe weather during this
period, though significant uncertainty remains in the details.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection wanes after sunset with the loss of daytime heating
and a lull in thunderstorm activity again occurs during early
overnight hours. However, hi-res models suggest an overnight
wave of showers and possibly thunderstorms (owing to lingering
elevated instability) moves across the area starting around
06z and continuing through late Saturday morning. Patchy fog
will also be possible early Saturday morning in areas that
aren't being impacted by overnight convection as moisture
remains trapped near the surface.
Following the morning precipitation, conditions will briefly dry
up with south-southeasterly winds gusting between 15-20kts
during the afternoon. Previously, models showed the second round
of precipitation moving through late Saturday afternoon/evening.
Newer runs are now showing the second round being pushed back
into the overnight period. Any mention of later precipitation
was omitted from the TAFs for the time being, aside from PIT.
Outlook...
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances expected through Tuesday
as a series of disturbances cross the Upper Ohio Valley. Sunday
is increasingly looking like the exception, as shortwave
ridging briefly brings dry weather that day. Patchy fog and
stratus remains possible each morning with stubborn low level
moisture.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 9:14 PM EDT---------------
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