MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 2:20 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...532
FXUS64 KMOB 061920
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
220 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon through early next week.
- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into
early next week.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches
on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Through Sunday, an upper high off the East Coast builds west over
the Southeast, shifting a weakness in an upper ridge over the
Southeast further west. A surface ridge stretching west over the
northern Gulf coast shifts north to over the Southeast proper,
albeit remains disorganized with the upper weakness over/near the
region still exerting some influence. The limited organized deep
layer flow off the Gulf will keep moisture levels around 2", with
guidance advertising bands of drier air moving over the the forecast
area at times into the weekend. The inconsistent moisture levels
along with building upper ridge is limiting PoPs to isolated to
scattered, mainly afternoon/early evening over land areas, the rest
of the week through the weekend. Am also still expecting isolated
convection to form over the open Gulf and coast later in the night
into the morning hours as the slight cooling over Gulf waters allow
for shallow (relative to land areas) convection to form. With good
afternoon instability (MLCapes rising to 2000-2500J/kg at times),
but limited wind shear, pulse type storms are expected. Add in
DCapes around 1000J/kg range, damaging downbursts are possible in
the taller storms.
Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures around to a
bit above seasonal norms through Sunday. High temperatures in the
low to mid 90s (around 90 along the coast) are expected. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are
expected. Heat indices generally in the 100-107 degree range are
expected each day.
Monday on, guidance starts to diverge in the upper levels, with some
deterministic guidance advertising the upper weakness west of the
Southeast working its way back east over the region, whilst others
keep it west. The result is a bit warmer/drier forecast as apposed
to a bit cooler/wetter. The overall difference is small, so near
seasonal temperatures and PoPs a bit below are expected.
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to
a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better
organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, outside of
any thunderstorms. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the afternoon before diminishing early this evening.
Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings, along with gusty
and erratic winds, near any thunderstorms. Winds will become calm
overnight. Another round of storms may develop along the coastline
by 09z or so. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf
coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow
through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to
offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land
breeze sets up with the night cooling.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 0
Pensacola 89 76 90 76 / 10 10 20 0
Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 20 10
Evergreen 92 71 92 72 / 30 20 10 10
Waynesboro 96 72 95 73 / 30 20 0 10
Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 10
Crestview 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 2:20 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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