Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #965 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY709
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0965
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Areas affected...OH Valley into central/southern Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 071925Z - 080100Z
Summary...At least isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding
are expected across portions of the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians through the early evening. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches are expected.
Discussion...19Z radar imagery across the upper OH Valley into
portions of the central Appalachians showed scattered
thunderstorms with a few regions of greater coverage. Trends over
the past 1-2 hours have shown increased coverage of storms over
southwestern OH, from eastern KY into western VA and along the
Cumberland Plateau of TN. The storms farther north were located
ahead of an advancing shortwave trough, with the right-entrance
region of a 50-60 kt upper jet max enhancing upper level
divergence across portions of the upper OH Valley. The broad
region from the OH Valley to the Appalachians contained 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE and modestly positive PW anomalies of +1 to +2 above
the mean.
Given speed shear was low to modest at best across the area, storm
organization should remain limited across the region but the high
moisture environment and varied storm motions ranging from ~15 kt
up north to ~5 kt down south should allow for locally higher
rainfall rates with hourly values of 1 to 2+ inches expected.
Storm mergers with related outflow interactions and subsequent
convective development could support brief areas of training as
well. While the flash flood threat doesn't appear to be
particularly focused in any given area across the OH Valley into
the central and southern Appalachians, at least a few areas of
flash flooding will be likely given flash flood guidance values
under 2 inches in 1 and 3 hours for portions of the region,
although flash flood coverage should remain limited due a lack of
larger scale forcing.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...
RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40018483 39648311 39278175 39078089 38908008
38347989 37958001 37198054 36268135 34978323
34798547 36248551 37588559 38878644 39528637
40008576
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #965 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY---------------
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