IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 2:42 PM EDT820
FXUS63 KIND 071842
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Occasional showers/storms this evening into next week
- Localized ponding/flooding of low-lying areas will be possible
where repeated rounds of downpours occur
- An isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out...mainly
Saturday night into Monday night
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026
Today through Saturday night...
A mid-level wave pushing through the region and moderate-strong
destabilization will continue to promote scattered convection
through the evening. The disturbance is then expected to shift east
allowing convection to diminish overnight. Severe weather is not
expected due to limited deep-layer wind shear. That said, forecast
soundings depict steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE values up to
1000 J/KG. This could support an isolated strong to severe downburst
this afternoon or evening.
Latest CAMs have gradually become less bullish on the threat for a
strong downburst. This is likely due to early day convection and
clouds limiting limiting destabilization more than initially expected.
Very localized heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out either which may
result in flooding. Storms will be moving E or ENE around 20-30 mph,
but efficient rainfall rates and any brief training could result in
localized flooding.
ANother mid-upper level wave and an associated weak front will move
in on Saturday. Weak forcing from these features along with moderate-
strong destabilization may support isolated convection late in the
day. Convective development remains uncertain due to marginal
forcing for ascent, but if any strong storm can develop then a
strong downburst cannot be completely ruled out given sufficient
DCAPE.
Sunday through next week...
Guidance depicts longwave troughing across the region during much of
the period with multiple embedded shortwaves moving through within
northwest flow aloft. These impulses will promote additional
convective chances at times as deeper moisture surges back into
central Indiana. Expect daily rain and storms chances with low
confidence on exacts details due to varying model solutions
regarding the low amplitude shortwaves passing through. The greatest
precipitation chances are from late Tuesday through Wednesday when
the strongest forcing and deeper moisture overlap.
Some guidance is already hinting at MCSs or storm clusters
developing upstream and propagating towards Indiana at times. Look
for higher uncertainty regarding specific details of each subsequent
round of convection. The evolution of previous day convection could
significantly impact the forecast. In general, models depict strong
destabilization most days and enhancement of mid-upper level flow
from the passing waves. This could potentially support isolated
severe thunderstorms somewhere near the region, but expect
confidence to remain low until models become better aligned.
Localized flooding from repeated rounds of convection and damaging
wind gusts would likely be the primary threats from this setup.
It is worth noting CSU ML severe probabilities have increased
gradually over the past few days and generally highlight the Sunday
through Wednesday timeframe with at least low probabilities. Expect
increasingly warm and humid conditions late this weekend into early
due to warm air advection. The highest heat indices are expected on
Monday when they could peak near 100F across much of central
Indiana. These peak heat indices may not be reached if convection
moves through earlier in the day.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026
Impacts:
- VFR cigs this afternoon and early evening amid ISO-SCT -SHRA
- MVFR visibilities possible overnight
Discussion:
A warm and moist air mass across Central Indiana with some weak
forcing aloft will allow for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to
develop this afternoon and into the evening. ACARS soundings shallow
CAPE available near 1700 J/KG. This will be sufficient for shra/tsra
development due to diurnal heating. HRRR shows scattered convection
developing across the area after 20Z, persisting until 02Z. Morning
clouds have delayed convective initiation, but GOES19 shows a bit
more clearing to the west should allow for heating to proceed within
the next couple of hours.
After convection ends this evening, a return to VFR is expected, but
dew point depressions overnight remain small amid light winds which
will be an ideal recipe for MVFR fog development.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 2:42 PM EDT---------------
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