LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 3:34 PM EDT773
FXUS63 KLMK 051934
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
334 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered slow moving showers and storms (20-40%
coverage) are possible east of I-65 for the remainder of the
afternoon, and across most of the area Thursday. Most locations
will remain dry.
* Better shower and storm chances, along with summer warmth and
humidity, will return later this week, peaking at 45-65% Friday
into Saturday.
* Lower chances for showers and storms Sunday (10-20%)-Monday (20-
40%), with increasing chances Tuesday night through Wednesday (40-
60%).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026
This Afternoon through Tonight...
On the east side of a subtle pseudo-stationary boundary from Lake
Cumberland through the Bluegrass, isolated-to-scattered showers and
a few storms have begun to develop. The boundary placement is a
result of an upper-level trough encroaching from the northwest and a
departing closed low off to our southeast. From the most recent SPC
mesoanalysis, PWs over 1.5" will allow for heavier downpours to
occur, posing a very localized threat for flash flooding. MLCAPE
values > 1000 J/kg occupy this environment, but very weak wind shear
will result in garden variety storms with very slow storm motion for
the rest of the afternoon/early evening. To the north and west of
the boundary, conditions will remain warm and dry, with slightly
more manageable dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s.
For tonight, as the upper trough moves towards the Ohio Valley, the
closed low will dissipate off to our east as ridging builds in
thanks in part due to the western Atlantic high. Conditions will be
dry and mild ahead of the trough that also has a mid-level shortwave
expected to move through the area on Thursday. Expect overnight lows
in the upper 60s/low 70s, with mid-to-upper level clouds building
from west to east as the night progresses. A few areas of patchy fog
may develop tonight, mainly east of I-65, though increasing cloud
cover should limit this considerably.
Thursday and Thursday Night...
The mid-level shortwave and upper-level trough will graze the
northern portions of the CWA on Thursday, mainly over north central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. With winds shifting from the north to
the south with the building ridge off to the east, increased
moisture transport will allow PWs to climb during the day (most
recent HREF outputting 1.6-1.8" PW). While HREF SBCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg are likely tomorrow afternoon, wind shear will still
be weak, so while the area for possible showers and thunderstorms
will expand some, we still only expect a slight chance (20-40%) for
garden variety showers and storms. The main concerns would be
heavier downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. For near-
stationary storms, the high PW values would again pose a very
localized flooding issue. For many places, conditions will be dry
tomorrow, and with increased southerly flow, temperatures will rise
into the upper 80s, with dew points getting into the low-to-mid 70s.
On Thursday night, the southern periphery of the upper trough will
continue to linger over the northern portion of the CWA. As the
shortwave on Thursday departs to the north and east, another subtle
wave will enter into southern Indiana by late Thursday night. With
ample moisture still in place, there is a slight chance (20-40%) for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm in north central Kentucky and
southern Indiana. With cloud cover in place, overnight temperatures
will not drop much, with lows in the low 70s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026
Friday and Saturday...
Broad upper-level troughing over the Midwest and Great Lakes will
settle in by the end of the week and continue into the weekend,
while ridging over the western Atlantic and southeast CONUS will
settle in. A surface boundary will linger off to our north over
northern Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio, keeping our region in an area
of higher moisture (LREF PW > 1.7") and in the path of multiple
shortwaves moving through. Some of the higher chances for showers
and isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms will take place late Friday
through midday Saturday (45-65%), with the main concerns again being
heavier downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Deep layer
shear will still be relatively weak (< 20 kt), so any concerns for
strong to severe storms is still very minimal. Southerly flow will
also make conditions hot and muggy, with highs in the upper 80s/low
90s and heat indices in the mid-to-upper 90s.
Sunday through Middle Next Week...
The upper trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes becomes less amplified
as ridging from the Atlantic/SE CONUS high tries to build westward.
The mid/upper-level flow over our region becomes more zonal in
nature, with PWs also decreasing some (most recent LREF outputs 1.4-
1.6" PW). The jet stream will be further north, keeping more of the
traversing shortwaves off to the north and reducing our chances for
precipitation into the early parts of next week. Southerly surface
flow will keep temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s Sunday through
Tuesday before the frontal boundary begins to move southward. The
shifting of the front will be in part due to the amplification of
the western CONUS ridge, as well as a deepening of an upper level
trough over the Hudson Bay. LREF cluster guidance does show
variability in the timing and progression of these features, with
the mean output bringing the front through Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Regardless of timing, this will bring back higher chances
for showers and storms (40-60% chance) ahead of the front as it
moves through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop east of I-65 this
afternoon and could impact LEX and RGA through the early evening
hours. Any thunderstorms that do occur could briefly reduce
visibility due to heavy downpours. Chances for showers and storms
will quickly decrease by sunset, with VFR conditions prevailing
across the terminals through the remainder of the TAF period. Patchy
fog may develop tonight, primarily near BWG, though any reduction
in visibilities should remain above VFR levels.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BEN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 3:34 PM EDT---------------
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