IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:01 PM EDT283
FXUS63 KIWX 041701
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
101 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions today into Wednesday with highs in the low-to-
mid 80s.
- Chances (40-80 percent) for showers and storms return
Wednesday evening and persist into Friday. Heavy rain is
possible.
- Low chances for showers and storms Saturday into Tuesday(20-40
percent).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
An upper level ridge/sfc high pressure builds in today and lingers
through Wed. Because of this, we have a nice break in active weather
through Wednesday, with partly to mostly clear skies, light winds,
and highs in the 80s. Patchy fog is possible early this morning, but
should improve shortly after sunrise.
Next chance for showers and storms looks to be Wed evening,
continuing through early next week. Our upper level ridge drifts
eastward and a broad trough stemming from a closed low over Hudson
Bay takes hold of the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move in
from NW to SE, stalling along the southern border of our CWA by
Saturday morning. We'll see return flow around high pressure over
the Atlantic bring moisture from the gulf into the area during this
time. Have around a 40-80 percent chance for showers and storms Wed
PM into Friday, which is when chances begin to dwindle from NW to
SE. Heavy rain is possible. Severe weather is not expected at this
time. With the front stalling south of the CWA, we could end up dry
Saturday outside of low 20 percent chances or so in the vicinity of
the front. Some of the guidance generates precipitation in the
afternoon with an incoming shortwave, but my confidence isn't too
high in this. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s.
A couple additional waves move through the slightly troughed/zonal
pattern aloft Sunday into Tuesday, bringing chances for additional
showers/storms (20-40 percent). The best chances are associated with
the stronger wave on Monday into Tuesday. Highs will be in the
80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
High pressure over Indiana will provide tranquil conditions
during the TAF period, including wind less than 10 knots.
Increasing clouds late in the period, but remaining VFR, as a
cold front slowly approaches from the west. Lingering dry air
looks to preclude any -SHRA mention at this time. Cannot
completely rule out patchy ground fog near daybreak Wednesday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:01 PM EDT---------------
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