JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 7:55 PM EDT712
FXUS63 KJKL 032355
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and storm chances shift return to the southeast portion
of the state on Tuesday, with heavy rainfall a distinct threat.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for the
remainder of the week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 459 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
A deep trough, including an upper level low, are still in place
across the Appalachian spine, Deep South, and East Coast. So while
surface high pressure continues to move towards eastern KY from the
NW, the frontal boundary that exited the state yesterday is still
parked just to our SE and playing a large role in the weather today,
coupled with the forcing of the upper level low. Instead of the
northerly flow in the region allowing things to clear out and cool
down, the temperatures have been cool, but the troughing has won
out, with clouds remaining in place, and light rain showers ongoing
through the morning, followed up by scattered showers this afternoon
closer to the boundary in the SE part of the state. Did leave in
mention of thunder through the afternoon, but so far the instability
with these storms has not been great, so lightning will likely be
limited.
Moving into the overnight, the upper level low will remain present
to our south, but high pressure will continue to work it's magic
into the region. All clouds should begin to diminish heading into
the overnight with the loss of daytime mixing (the ones in the far
SE being the longest to hold on. Once they are able to clear out, we
should cool down a bit, likely in the low 60s, with some of the
deepest valleys possibly hitting the upper 50s. It's also very
possible, with the increased subsidence, that we see some fog
develop in the deeper valleys, especially in the river valleys. Kept
what the midnight shift had for fog as it still seemed reasonable.
Unfortunately the upper level low will still be in play tomorrow,
even as the high pressure continues to be in control at the surface.
Again, showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible during
the day with daytime mixing in the far SE part of the state, closer
to the upper level low and still somewhat stationary frontal
boundary. WPC is also analyzing a secondary boundary that develops
across the east side of the state during the afternoon, likely a
result of the boundary between the more humid air to our S and SE
and the drier air to our north. Winds will also remain light, so
much like today, don't expect these storms to have much motion -
this could be good and bad. They likely won't sustain, but they
could drop some decent rainfall if they get strong enough, which
could lead to some isolated flash flooding concerns. PWATs will only
be in the 1.6 inch range, where as Wednesday will be much higher.
With less cloud cover than today, temperatures should also moderate
a bit warmer, likely topping out in the mid and upper 80s.
A very similar set up is then in play for Tuesday night as that of
tonight, with showers/storms and clouds expected to dissipate, and
subsidence will take hold. With temperatures being higher tomorrow
during the day compared to that of today, it's not a surprise that
overnight lows will also be a bit warmer, mainly in the mid and
upper 60s. Again, expect the valleys to get a bit cooler, and fog is
very possible - especially in the deeper river valleys where
moisture is better.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 532 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
The long wave pattern will be amplified through early next week, as
stronger ridge centers dominate from the western Atlantic as well as
the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a deeper low will be churning
over Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow fanned south across the
north central CONUS. This cyclonic flow will dampen and become
more confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late this
weekend and into early next week. Diurnally-driven convection
will threaten each day across eastern Kentucky, although areal
coverage should generally lessen by the latter half of the weekend
and into early next week, given the weaker forcing in place and
decreasing PWATs across the region.
Wednesday will likely be the day of better areal convective
coverage, as a remnant upper level low weakens but also drifts
north towards the Commonwealth. PWATs look to increase to the
1.7-1.8 inch range, coupled with freezing levels above 15k feet
agl, and storm motions of less than 10 kts. As such, isolated
flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms are most
persistent. Residual troughing will then linger across the Ohio
Valley from Thursday through Saturday, before easing up more so
Sunday and Monday. Again, this should result in more limited
convective coverage each day, although given the successive days
of storm potential and continued meager storm motions, isolated
flash flooding will threaten at times through the end of the work
week. Highs will slowly moderate each day, starting out in the
low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and reaching the mid to upper 80s by
early next week. Lows will average in the mid to upper 60s.
Humidity levels will remain elevated throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
Outside of a few decaying showers over far southeastern Kentucky,
VFR conditions were noted across eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance
time. As high pressure brushes to our north, mostly clear skies
will allow fog formation overnight through many of the sheltered
river valleys. However, northeasterly flow just off the ridgetops
should be sufficient to keep most of the fog confined there and
away from the TAF sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions going
into the day on Tuesday with a substantial cu field redeveloping
by late morning. There will also be a risk of isolated to scattered
deep convection again Tuesday afternoon but most of the activity
should stay southeast of the TAF terminals. Winds will generally
be N to NE and light (under 10 kts).
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 7:55 PM EDT---------------
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