JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 2:14 PM EDT841
FXUS63 KJKL 031814
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
214 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The shower and storm chances shift to the southeast today but
are expected to build back in on Tuesday with heavy rainfall a
distinct threat.
- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
Have made a couple of updates so far this morning, mainly to the
pops and weather. When driving in just before 8am, drizzle was
observed, which then became light rain showers just before
reaching the office. Since that point, the reflectivity has become
more pronounced on the radar, indicating that this isn't just
drizzle but rather light rain showers that have set up across
across portions of eastern KY. Added in higher pops earlier and
changed drizzle to rain showers to account for the increased
precipitation. Originally expected it to diminish through the
morning, especially as mixing increased, but this has not been the
case. Now the originally forecasted showers are starting to pop up
along the TN and VA border, but an area of light showers still
remains for much of the southeast half of the CWA. As such, went
ahead and increased pops again for the next couple of hours, until
afternoon convection starts to take hold. Morning rain showers
were added to the SAF with the first update, so shouldn't need to
send out a new one. However, will continue to assess in case
wording needs to be extended into the afternoon based on trends.
The near term temperature, dew point, and wind forecasts have
also been freshened up based on the latest observations, though
they seemed to be well on track with the ongoing forecast. All
updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also extend the patchy drizzle from the low stratus through
mid-morning. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
07Z sfc analysis shows a low pressure system northeast of
Kentucky with its cold front now east of the state. This has
taken the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms out of the area
along with the threat of flooding rains. However, in its wake low
stratus has built into the western parts of the area along with
areas of fog and lingering light showers/drizzle. Meanwhile,
temperatures and dewpoints are fairly uniform in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, amid light north winds.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the sharp 5h trough slowly pulling east
of the Southern Appalachians and filling today. Meanwhile, its
southern extent gets left behind over the Deep South and closes
off through mid week retrograding to the triple point of northern
Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee by Tuesday evening. This allows
more energy to work into this part of Kentucky later tonight and
Tuesday. Given the small spread in the model's solutions aloft
into mid-week, the NBM was used as the starting point of the
forecast grids. Again some adjustments were needed for the PoPs
and thunder chances today through Tuesday afternoon with the
inclusion of timing and coverage details from the latest CAMs
consensus guidance.
Sensible weather will feature a drier day for most with the higher
PoPs confined to the far southeast portion of the JKL CWA - aside
from some lingering showers in the west this morning. The lower
clouds, drizzle patches, and any fog will clear out by mid morning
allowing this drying to be most effective. Expect drier conditions
to set up a small ridge to valley temperature split tonight along
with valley fog formation - locally dense. For Tuesday, the sfc
weakness to our south will let showers and storms develop deeper
into the area during the afternoon and into the evening. Look for
temperatures to return to near normal for highs on Tuesday after
cooler conditions lingered for another day, today.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
the latest CAMs consensus solution for the PoPs and thunder
potential through Tuesday evening. Temperatures and dewpoints
where tweaked for nighttime terrain details tonight and a bit of
extra mix-down drying in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
The first part of the extended will be a continuation of damp
weather with a threat for thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
lingering through Thursday. The diurnal cycle should dominate the
timing of the convection each day. Later, broad troughing looks to
be on track to spread south from Canada into the Ohio Valley
closing out the work week and heading into the weekend - perhaps
bringing more shower and thunderstorm chances - continuing the
damp pattern that started this month.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The models remain in good agreement with the long wave pattern
through the end of next week. An upper level ridge will remain
centered across the western Atlantic, strengthening through the
latter half of the work week. Further west, a persistent heat dome
centered near the Four Corners region will also intensify during
the period. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low spiraling over the
vicinity of Hudson Bay will spread cyclonic flow over the north
central U.S. through next week. By the start of next weekend, both
ridges will have dampened somewhat, with more model uncertainty
regarding how much residual troughing can be maintained across the
Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. In general, this
will result in a continuation of diurnally-driven convection each
day through next week across eastern Kentucky, with elevated
humidity levels and near normal temperatures expected for early
August.
The models have trended more towards sustaining a closed low over
the Deep South on Tuesday, with higher PoPs favored across our
terrain, and lesser chances north, further away from the forcing.
The upper low will drift closer to us on Wednesday, bringing
higher rain chances to eastern Kentucky. LREF mean PWATs continue
to range in the 50-75th percentile range of climatology, but storm
motions look a bit slower this go around at around 10 kts, so
locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The upper level low will
dampen across the region on Thursday, with some degree of
troughing remaining in place through the weekend, dependent on the
strength of upstream cyclonic flow and any potential short wave
energy migration. There still seems to be pretty good confidence
in keeping any surface fronts north of the Ohio River, allowing
for only weak forcing across our area. As such, expect mainly
afternoon/early evening PoPs in place each day through Sunday, but
convection should be more scattered in nature. Highs each day
will average in the lower to middle 80s. Lows will moderate
slightly from the mid to upper 60s to near 70 by next weekend,
with elevated humidity levels in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
As high pressure works in from our NW, and a slow-moving frontal
boundary is still located just to our SE, it has made for an
intersting set up. First of all, the northerly flow has maintained
the low MVFR CIGS across much of the area into early this
afternoon. It has also allowed the drizzle and shower chances to
continue through the morning. Now that mixing has taken more
effect this afternoon, showers and a possible thunderstorm will be
on tap closer to the boundary, near the TN and VA borders, away
from the TAF terminals. Elsewhere (including most TAF sites) will
eventually see some clearing over the next few hours as the low
cloud deck finally mixes out. Clearing conditions will then continue
into tonight, which could result in some valley fog in the deeper
river valleys. Did not include this fog mention/impacts on the
ridges or at the TAF sites as of now, as trends keep it in the
valleys. However, there is a chance for some low clouds in the
morning at the TAF sites as the fog lifts out of the valleys, but
also did not include since the timing and impacts are still
unknown and dependent on how much fog sets up overnight.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions going into the day on Tuesday.
Winds are generally N to NE and light today, and will remain light
(under 10 kts) TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 2:14 PM EDT---------------
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