ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 1:51 PM EDT203
FXUS61 KILN 021751
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder continue this
evening and taper off overnight.
2) The active weather pattern continues with episodic showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week. Below average temperatures
continue.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
The upper level low that has been dominating our weather will open up
into a deep, positively tilted, wave today. Low clouds, periods of
drizzle or rain, and the occasional thunderstorm remain in the
forecast through this evening before tapering off overnight. The
overall severe and hydro threats for our area this afternoon and
evening remain low, with deepest moisture and more robust
shear/instability building on the east side of the wave (closer to
the Appalachians). However, cannot rule out an isolated stronger
storm with gusty winds and/or heavy rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Looking ahead, the upper level wave will slowly progress off to the
east on Monday, pulling in a drier and cooler airmass from the
northwest. We'll feel this change most notably in our eastern Indiana
and western Ohio counties, where the drier air is deeper. To the
east/southeast, left a low end PoP and lingering cloud cover where
the wave is slower to depart. Temperatures remain below average, only
topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s.
We look to briefly dry out on Tuesday before a disturbance in the
Gulf begins to move north, bringing renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, particularly for areas of eastern
Kentucky and east/southeastern Ohio. Following this feature, a larger
longwave to our northwest digs in near the Hudson Bay, bringing a
cold front down, continuing the chances for showers and storms as we
head into the late working week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level low continues to sit over the region, resulting in
scattered rain showers and periods of MVFR CIGs and VSBYs through
this evening. Rain showers taper off after sunset and CIGs will
lower once again overnight to low end MVFR and IFR across the region.
MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible at times as well, but signal is
greatest south and east of all TAF sites.
CIGs will slowly increase during the daytime hours on Monday,
eventually scattering out by Monday afternoon.
Winds out of the northwest this afternoon around 5-10 knots will veer
to northerly during the overnight and into Monday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Aiena
AVIATION...Aiena
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 1:51 PM EDT---------------
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