MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 2:50 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...309
FXUS64 KMOB 011950
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
250 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
- A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts,
heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning tonight
and into Sunday.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for
all area beaches.
- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create
hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
A positively-tilted upper-level trough currently stretches from
the Great Lakes region southwestward into the ArkLaTex. Over the
next couple days, this trough will slowly push eastward with
several embedded shortwaves rounding the base of this trough. At
the surface, an associated cold front is located over northwestern
Mississippi and will continue pushing southeastward throughout
the day and into tonight. Moisture pooling out ahead of the front
should allow for PWATs to increase to around 2.1-2.3 inches
(generally around the 90th-95th percentile when comparing to
climatology). This, along with forcing from the surface front and
shortwave energy aloft, as well as strong daytime heating, should
lead to the development of showers and storms along the front over
portions of central MS and AL. As the front approaches and enters
our northwestern counties this evening, the best forcing appears
to pull away from the local area. This should lead to an overall
weakening trend with storms as they enter our area. That being
said, with plenty of instability in place, drier air aloft owing
to DCAPEs above 1000 J/kg, along with shear values to around 25
knots, cannot rule out one or two multicellular clusters, capable
of producing gusty to locally damaging winds over our northern
counties this evening.
The front will continue sagging to the southeast overnight tonight,
setting up somewhere along the coast or just offshore by the early
to mid-morning hours. Meanwhile, the next embedded shortwave is
expected to pass across the area sometime around, or a little before
sunrise, allowing for another round of showers and storms to
redevelop. As stated before, moisture pooling will result in plenty
of deep moisture to be in place along and ahead of the front,
allowing for storms to be efficient rainfall-producers. And with
flow moving parallel to the slow-moving front, storms may attempt
to train and impact the same areas. The biggest question will be
with regards to the location of the front, as this will ultimately
determine where the highest coverage/heaviest rainfall will
occur. Right now the latest 24hr LPMMs from the HREF suggest that
localized QPF maximums of around 4-6 inches should remain just
offshore. However, if the front is a bit slower and does not
manage to make it offshore, I can not rule out these values being
realized over portions of our coastal counties, potentially
leading to a localized flash flood threat late tonight into Sunday
morning. We will monitor this potential closely.
The front should wash out by Sunday night/Monday and a drier airmass
will begin filtering in after the passage of the upper trough
axis. This will help to lower rain chances for the start of the
week and possibly bring dew points into the 60s for a good
portion of the area. If isolated to scattered showers and storms
do manage to develop during the first half of the week, they will
likely remain confined to the sea breeze boundary generally along
and east of the I-65 corridor. Highs throughout the period will
remain in the low to mid 90s, however, with the drier air
filtering in, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory
criteria through much of the week. A High Risk of Rip Currents
will be in place through Sunday night, lowering to a Moderate Risk
for Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday
and into midweek. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms developing over eastern-most portions of
the forecast area can bring local drops in conditions to low end
MVFR. More convection developing late tonight closer to the coast
and lasting into Sunday morning will again bring local drops to
low/mid MVFR levels. Winds are expected to be generally westerly
this afternoon though tonight, with a shift to northwesterly
beginning late Sunday morning as a cold front begins to move over
the forecast area.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow
is expected to develop tonight and linger through Sunday. A Small
Craft Advisory is in place for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi
Sound from 7PM tonight through 7AM Sunday, and from 7PM tonight
through 4PM Sunday for our local Gulf waters. Winds gradually
weaken Sunday night, with a light to moderate southwesterly flow
becoming prevalent for the early to middle part of next week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 91 71 92 / 50 40 20 10
Pensacola 79 89 73 91 / 60 80 40 10
Destin 80 87 75 89 / 60 90 50 10
Evergreen 73 91 71 91 / 40 40 20 20
Waynesboro 72 92 70 92 / 70 0 0 10
Camden 72 89 71 89 / 70 10 0 20
Crestview 75 89 73 91 / 60 70 40 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Sunday
for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 2:50 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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