Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #916 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY606
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0916
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026
Areas affected...Alabama through Eastern Kentucky
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 012044Z - 020230Z
SUMMARY...A line of training thunderstorms has formed in a highly
unstable and moisture rich environment from northern Alabama
through Eastern Kentucky. Flash flooding likely.
DISCUSSION...A series of lines of thunderstorm cells are setting
up across northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee this afternoon.
These storms are moving northeastward as the lines they are
embedded in move east, thus allowing for some limited training.
Across Alabama, SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values close to
5,000 J/kg near the Mississippi border near Hamilton, Alabama. The
nose of instability extends into central Tennessee and Kentucky
with SBCAPE values around 3,000 J/kg. Southwesterly flow ahead of
the advancing cold front is advecting plentiful moisture
northeastward ahead of the front, allowing the storms to blossom
in coverage as they track off towards the northeast. There are a
few segments where the storms have done a better job merging west
of Knoxville, but it's likely that these storms will congeal into
a solid line or two over the next few hours. For now, the storms
are only producing rainfall rates up to an inch per hour, but as
they organize in this highly unstable and moisture-rich
environment, expect the rates in the strongest cores to rapidly
increase. Rainfall rates will be highly dependent on the speed of
the storms, despite expected high instantaneous rainfall rates.
Local rates will approach 3 inches per hour, with isolated rates
to 4 inches per hour where cell mergers and cold pools locally
slow the movement of any stronger cores.
Urban areas such as Birmingham, Chattanooga, and Knoxville are
likely to be impacted by storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall over the next several hours. These urban areas will have
a greater risk of flash flooding as a result. Meanwhile, low-lying
and particularly flood prone areas, especially into northwest
Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and eastern Kentucky where terrain
becomes a significant factor could also see localized flash
flooding in a few hours as the storms move through.
CAMs guidance suggests there will be a single concrete line of
storms on the western end of any convection associated with the
approaching cold front. However, scattered segments of storms are
likely to continue forming out ahead of the main line, seemingly
at random. Areas that are hit with multiple rounds of heavy rain
in quick succession will also be susceptible to localized flash
flooding into this evening.
Wegman
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 37828301 37258257 35688334 35318359 35028385
34398445 33788514 33438586 33088699 33148790
33548806 34468736 35188655 35518637 35898605
36088578 36258548 36638489 37518408
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #916 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY---------------
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