PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 2:57 PM CDT701
FXUS63 KPAH 311957
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few severe storms are possible late this evening primarily
over southeast Missouri. Damaging winds and torrential
rainfall will be the main concerns, but a few tornadoes will
be possible.
- A wet and mild weekend is in store across the Quad State. The
best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be tonight and
again Sunday. High temperatures may struggle to reach 80 over
the weekend with the extensive cloud cover and rain
potential, which could threaten record cold highs.
- A daily chance of (20-40%) of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms is forecast Monday and Tuesday. The best chances
will be over the eastern half of the Quad State.
- Mild conditions will continue through Tuesday, then
temperatures will trend toward normal by Wednesday and then
into the lower 90s throughout the area by Friday. Triple digit
heat indices will also return by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
The area of showers currently moving across the Quad State has
been much more pesky than advertised, which has resulted in a
lot wetter day over much of the region. It has been weakening as
it moved east, but just not as drastically as just about all
guidance was showing, so we will expect it to continue to
weaken through the remainder of the area, but most places will
at least see some light rain. The positive from all of this, is
that destabilization will struggle behind it over southeast
Missouri.
As for the severe threat tonight, the CAMs are generally
advertising a pretty significant severe storm environment over
Missouri, but the eastern extent of it is in doubt after today's
system. With MLCAPE 1000-2500J/kg, 0-3km SRH 200-400m2/s2, and
0-1km SRH 150-200m2/s2, supercells with damaging winds and a
tornado threat are a strong possibility.
Looking at obs over Missouri, a boundary has set up from central
MO south to just east of KUNO. This boundary will likely push
eastward into our far western areas through the remainder of the
day, meanwhile the cold front which is already into west central
Missouri will continue southeast. Each of these boundaries are
likely focal points for thunderstorm development. For our area,
I would expect storms to move quickly south along the
boundary/eastern edge of the instability. The timing is still
not clear, but should still be this evening, and most likely
the latter half of the evening. The showers today have been very
efficient rain producers, so with the instability expected in
the far west this evening, some flash flooding cannot be ruled
out. Hopefully, the storms will be moving fast enough to
mitigate much of the flooding threat.
Farther to the east across the area, instability really drops
off and convection should generally be weaker. However,
widespread showers and storms should progress through the area
overnight along with the cold front. Some heavy rain will be
possible, and some minor flooding issues may develop, especially
in those poor drainage areas.
Much of Saturday will be dry behind the cold front, but
wraparound showers and storms will spread southeast into the
Quad State in the afternoon and continue through Sunday. No
severe threat is expected, but with the proximity of the upper
low some cold air funnels could dance around the area.
Heading into next week, guidance is still not certain how far
east the upper low will push, leaving the possibility of some
showers or even storms developing in the far east in the
afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday it should
definitely push east of the region, as high pressure aloft
builds over the Quad State. The forecast dries out and high
temperatures should climb back to normal levels Wednesday, and
by next Friday, highs will be in the lower 90s throughout the
region and heat indices will be in the 100-105 range. If
dewpoints overachieve, as they seem to always do this summer,
another Heat Advisory may be needed Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to
weaken as it moves east across the region this afternoon. A
brief TSRA will be possible at KCGi and KPAH near the beginning
for the forecast. MVFR conditions will be possible. Another
round of thunderstorms will dive south through southeast
Missouri late this evening overnight. More scattered TSRA will
be possible farther east. MVFR ceilings and westerly winds will
move in behind the storms at all sites around sunrise and
continue through the end of the forecast. Some IFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 2:57 PM CDT---------------
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