LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 1:21 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...468
FXUS63 KLMK 291721
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
121 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Less humid and dry today, with highs in the 80s.
* Dry and slightly cooler through the latter part of the work week.
Rain and thunderstorm return this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Conditions are dry, and skies are mostly clear early this morning.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s to mid 70s across
southern IN and central KY. An upper level ridge centered near the
TX Panhandle extends north over the northern Plains. An upper level
trough rotates over the Northeast, and this trough will slowly shift
offshore through Friday.
At the surface, high pressure is currently positioned over portions
of Ontario and the Upper Midwest. Light northerly low-level flow is
in place across the Ohio Valley, advecting a cooler and less humid
airmass into the region. A N/NE wind continues through Thursday as
the area of high pressure slowly builds southeast across the Great
Lakes toward the Ohio Valley.
Fog has been slow to develop tonight with a steady, light north
wind. However, patchy fog does still look likely early this morning,
particularly in the river valleys. Sfc temperatures will settle into
the mid 60s to lower 70s by dawn. Today looks partly to mostly
sunny, with just some scattered clouds and the presence of some
wildfire smoke aloft. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s
this afternoon, with the southwestern CWA (Bowling Green area)
topping out in the upper 80s.
Dry weather is still likely to continue Thursday and Friday. By
Friday, an amplifying upper level shortwave trough is forecast to be
diving southeast over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be
pleasant for late July. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s on
Thursday, and solidly in the mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows will
dip into the low to mid 60s, and a few of our coolest spots in the
Bluegrass should reach the upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The pattern turns wetter this weekend. More amplified flow aloft
appears likely, with a trough descending over the Ohio Valley and
the upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. A weak sfc
low should accompany the upper level shortwave trough, moving over
the Lower OH Valley on Saturday. This wave then occludes and weakens
before shifting off to the southeast heading into early next week.
A round of widespread rainfall looks likely on Saturday, with rain
possibly moderate to heavy at times. However, a significant
rainfall/flooding event is not expected. Instability will be
somewhat muted by the upper trough and widespread cloud cover, which
should also help limit the severe weather potential. LREF mean PW
values are around 1.7 inches, which is elevated but not
significantly anomalous (though notable model spread lingers this
weekend into early next week).
Lighter rainfall appears likely on Sunday with the stacked low
overhead. Highs over the weekend should range from the upper 70s to
mid 80s. At least diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms linger
through early next week, and the majority of LREF members show at
least light rain each day. However, forecast confidence in the
details is fairly low by Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Northwest flow aloft will continue across the region through the
period. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build into
the region from the northwest. While VFR vsbys are expected across
the region, we'll see some some MVFR cigs for a time this afternoon.
Expect cigs to improve this evening with clear skies and light winds
overnight. VFR conditions are expected to continue on Thursday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 1:21 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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