JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:43 PM EDT148
FXUS63 KJKL 261743
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
143 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend
though there remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms this
morning.
- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and
thunderstorms return to start the new work week.
- These storms could be more organized and strong to severe on
Monday afternoon into the night depending on MCS development and
evolution to the north of Kentucky.
- Drier weather returns for the second half of the upcoming work
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
We continue to be plagued by the some low stratus and even some
drizzle this morning. Given this will keep some higher cloud
cover and drizzle going through the morning, as forecast soundings
show low level moisture gets stuck beneath an inversion. Outside
of these updates overall forecast looks on track.
UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows that high pressure has shifted north of
Kentucky allowing a previously stalled frontal boundary to lift
into the state. This has served as a focusing mechanism for
showers and the occasional thunderstorm through the night, but
affecting only a narrow portion of the JKL CWA. Even so, the
training nature of this convection led to the issuance of a couple
of flood advisories west of the office. Otherwise, away from the
rain skies were mostly clear, but high dewpoints kept temperatures
from dropping off too much and limited the development of fog -
though low clouds were plentiful with the convection.
Specifically, most locations are reporting temperatures (and
dewpoints) in the upper 60s to lower 70s, amid light and variable
winds.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict eastern Kentucky between two prominent 5h
features - a large and strong ridge over the west and broad, but
deepening, troughing over the Northeast. Through the start of the
new work week, several mid-level waves will drop southeast through
the central Appalachians, brushing eastern Kentucky as they pass.
The northwest mid-level flow guiding these waves will be fairly
steady state keeping our area in the glide path for more active
weather. A couple of the stronger of these waves looks poised to
cross eastern Kentucky from late Monday through Tuesday night.
Give the continued model similarities, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the forecast grids with only minor adjustments
needed. These include PoP tweaks by including the consensus
guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM
runs tonight and through Monday evening. In addition, some very
minor terrain distinctions were included in the temperatures
tonight along with a hint of valley fog.
Sensible weather features a warm and humid couple of days with
times of convection lowering confidence in whether we face the
brunt of the heat today and Monday. Look for just a small chance
of showers or a thunderstorm around this morning then isolated
activity is anticipated into the evening with most locations
staying dry. Tonight could see some storm clusters develop and
slip through the area towards or just after dawn. The initial push
for this will likely pass during a typical convective minimum but
also leave behind boundaries and differential heating lines that
could redevelop as semi-organized storms into the afternoon. This
occurs ahead of whatever upstream convective clusters can organize
and head this way - probably well after sunset, Monday evening.
Any of these clusters could contain damaging wind gusts and
training cell related torrential/excessive rainfall yielding a
potential for localized flash flooding.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to hedge the
PoP grids toward the more high resolution CAMs solutions through
the period. Did again see some small potential to improve
overnight temperatures with the inclusion of limited terrain
details.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended
forecast this morning was primarily to include some slight
terrain distinctions into temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday
night, though some uncertainty remains as to the sky cover, post
frontal. Strong 5h ridging to the west still looks to support a
persistent glide path for mid-level shortwaves to dive into
eastern Kentucky through the middle of the new work week. One in
particular, on Monday evening and overnight, continues to
indicate a potential for severe weather given a fairly strong
wind field, plenty of instability lingering through sunset, and
model suggestions of MCS activity possibly dropping into
northern parts of the JKL CWA that night.
The previous long term discussion follows:
An amplified and pretty stagnant long wave pattern will remain in
place over the CONUS through next week. The center of an
anomalously strong upper level ridge will gradually shift west
over the Four Corners region, while troughing dominates east of
the Mississippi River. This will allow for northwesterly flow to
continue to be in place aloft across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys early in the upcoming week, with unsettled weather
expected. As troughing sharpens up more so across the Eastern
Seaboard by the middle and latter half of the work week, enough
residual 500 mb height rises will occur across eastern Kentucky to
allow for a return of drier weather from Wednesday through
Friday, before at least small rain chances return by Saturday, as
upper level height falls return across the region.
The threat of MCS activity will be on the table from Monday
through Tuesday across eastern Kentucky. Model guidance has been
inconsistent in positioning and timing, typical even within 24
hours or less, let alone 36-48 hours out. At this time, the
majority of model guidance is pointing more towards a quieter
daytime period on Monday, as Sunday night's activity looks to stay
and exit mainly to our west. Heat and humidity will continue to
build in across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90
and dew points in the lower 70s. While most activity currently
looks to move in after sunset, given the potential for upstream
outflow migration and influence, having at least 20-30 PoPs in
place as the latest guidance has offered up seems reasonable.
Better PoPs move in Monday night and linger into Tuesday. The
progressive nature of this activity lends to less of a hydro
concern; however, freezing levels will remain high and PWATs will
be peaking in the 75th-90th percentile range, so some quick bursts
of heavy rainfall are still possible. Additionally, any residual
outflow boundaries aligning more parallel with the upper level
flow will also need to be monitored, as this would be more
conducive to training cells. Cold pool intensity and longevity
will dictate the strong to damaging wind gust potential, and this
threat will exist Monday and Monday night across our area.
Another hot and humid day is on tap for Tuesday, with additional
MCS activity potentially in the vicinity, although even more
uncertainty exists regarding the details. A surface cold front
will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the area by
Wednesday, with surface high pressure settling across the Ohio
Valley. Highs will retreat to more seasonable lower to middle 80s,
while lows range from the low to mid 60s at night. Drier weather
will give way to small rain chances (around 30%) by Saturday, as
high pressure weakens at the surface, and more troughing takes
place aloft. Fortunately, dew points will only moderate back into
the mid 60s by the start of the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
We have seen some pesky stratus that has plagued much of the area
this morning and now into the afternoon. We are seeing this
slowly scatter out through the afternoon hours. However, did keep
a few sites (JKL, SYM, and IOB) in the MVFR range for Cigs this
afternoon for at least another hour. Outside this we will see most
sites return to VFR through the afternoon into the evening. The
forecast soundings then favor fog potential tonight. The extent of
this fog is still uncertain especially at SME. This is because a
complex of storms will move across mainly portions of western and
central Kentucky, but given the uncertainty did add in a Prob30
for a few hours late tonight into early Monday morning for
rain showers and resulting vis restrictions. Outside this, added
a combination of fog/low stratus in the MVFR to IFR range with fog
being the primary concern. Winds will be light and variable at or
below 5 knots through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:43 PM EDT---------------
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