BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 1:39 AM EDT096
FXUS61 KBOX 240539
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
139 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures through this weekend.
- Periodic chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms with
summerlike humidity both return in the late Mon through Wed
timeframe...perhaps lingering into Thu.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures through
this weekend.
A surface high pressure will dominate our weather through this
weekend. It will remain relatively cool for late July with
comfortable humidity for most. Once of the more uncertain
aspects to this forecast will be the winds.
Gusty W to NW winds early this afternoon will continue to
subside into this evening. Not as confident this will lead to an
east coast sea-breeze for most, as the gradient wind would be
more likely to keep it just offshore. As this high pressure
moves overhead tonight into Friday, winds become very
light/calm. Have greater confidence in sea-breezes developing
Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Periodic chances for scattered showers &
thunderstorms with summerlike humidity both return in the late Mon
through Wed timeframe...perhaps lingering into Thu.
The next shortwave trough approaches the region from the west in
the late Mon-Wed timeframe. This will allow southerly flow to
bring typical summerlike humidity back to southern New England.
This will also bring a return to period chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region in the late Mon-Wed time
frame...perhaps lingering int Thu if trough is slower to depart.
As is typical this time of year...that entire period will not
be a washout with many hours of dry weather. While specific
timing is impossible to pinpoint...afternoon/evenings will be
favored given diurnal heating/instability. Pwats on the order of
1.50 to 2" will bring the risk of localized heavy rainfall
within any convection.
Temperatures fairly seasonable for this time of year. Lows may be a
bit above normal with highs a touch below normal given the
increasing low level moisture for the middle of next week. Nothing
though really out of the ordinary for July standards.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Today and Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR conditions today and tonight. Generally calm to light S
winds for interior terminals. Diurnally driven sea breezes
along the immediate coast starting ESE then shifting to SE/SSE
later in the after 8-12 kts. Sea breezes kick out 00-02Z
shifting winds back to light S/SSW.
Saturday...High Confidence.
VFR. Easterly winds for all terminals. Less than 10 kts for the
interior and 8-12 kts for the coastal areas.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze likely
develops 14-16Z and kicks back out to S/SSW 01-03Z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday Night...High confidence.
Winds and seas continue to subside into tonight as a high
pressure moves over the waters Friday. Lingering rough seas
across the coastal waters behind a cold front. Did tweak the end
timing of the current Small Craft Advisories to account for
observed trends.
High Surf Advisory remains in effect for exposed southern
coastlines through this evening. Prolonged period of higher
seas and SW flow have increased the risk for rip currents. The
higher risk decreases Friday.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/Frank
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...Belk/Frank
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 1:39 AM EDT----------------
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