IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 1:30 PM EDT962
FXUS63 KIWX 231730
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, cooler, and less humid conditions continue today with highs
in the upper 70s.
- Trending warmer into the weekend. Hot and humid with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday and Monday.
- A few isolated storms possible Sunday with a 20% chance.
Better chances up to 40-60% on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
This morning will be the coolest of the upcoming week with
widespread lows in the low 50s. It is possible that some of our
rural, low lying areas see a low in the upper 40s this morning. NBM
probabilities currently have about 20-35% chances this morning,
while chances are less than 5% for Fort Wayne and South Bend, where
lows will be a touch higher, likely closer to 51-52 degrees.
Tranquil weather continues today with dry conditions and low
humidity. High pressure current centered over the Upper Midwest will
slowly build across the Great Lakes in the coming days. Dry
conditions are expected to continue through Saturday with this high
pressure system eventually overhead. High temperatures today will be
a bit warmer than yesterday but still only topping out in the upper
70s! Today and tonight will be great opportunities to open up
windows, with temperatures dropping into the 50s once again
overnight. Lows in the 50s, while unusual from the heat and humidity
we have been experiencing recently, are not that uncommon in July.
We typically average about 5 nights with lows below 60 degrees in
July.
Temperatures trend much warmer into the weekend. Moisture increases
as WAA ramps up, which means humidity starts increasing too. Hot and
humid conditions return by Sunday and Monday with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Increased evapotranspiration from crops may also aid in locally
higher dewpoints. Our forecast area will be split in between a
trough to our east and a large upper level ridge to our west.
Pattern recognition tells me this is a favorable set up for a
potentially active pattern into early next week with northwest
flow aloft. A frontal system brings the next chances for
rain/storms late Sunday into Monday, although confidence is
uncertain on exact timing. Models have been trending drier for
Sunday with precipitation chances that currently sit around 20%;
Monday's chances are higher at 20-60%. Any storms that develop
may be able to ride the edge of the upper level ridge through
our area. If we can get sufficient instability and moisture,
severe weather is not out of the question for Sunday and
especially Monday. Confidence is very low given the high spread
in deterministic and ensemble model guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Diurnal VFR cu continues to expand in coverage early this
afternoon and should gradually dissipate toward sunset with loss
of steeper low level lapse rates. A lake breeze is also
augmenting this cu field but appears to be anchored fairly close
to the shore. With limited lake/land thermal differentials, this
land breeze may not exhibit significant inland penetration this
afternoon and be on the weaker side, but would expect
transition to light northerly winds at KSBN mid-late afternoon
as this boundary sinks southward. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should continue through the remainder of the period with some
increase in high cloudiness later tonight helping to limit
shallow patchy fog potential. Winds will remain light on Friday
as little movement in the sfc anticyclone is expected this
period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 1:30 PM EDT---------------
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