PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 12:28 PM CDT052
FXUS63 KPAH 231728
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
ramps up by Friday evening, with rain chances peaking around
50-60% Saturday morning. Between one tenth to a half inch of
rainfall is possible, with locally higher amounts.
- Unseasonably cool and pleasant conditions continue into Friday
morning before the heat and humidity returns this weekend.
Heat index values by Sunday and Monday will once again reach
105 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley is allowing for unseasonably
cool and pleasant conditions today. Dewpoints have mixed down into
the 50s due to northeasterly flow, with a deep dry layer around
800 mb. The break from the heat and humidity will not last for
long as southerly return flow begins to advect in moisture on
Friday. Rain chances also begin to increase with a 500 mb
shortwave trough approaching the FA by Friday evening. Most of
Friday outside of a few sprinkles towards SEMO likely remains
dry, but the boundary layer eventually saturates Friday night
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
latest CAMs are currently struggling with a decaying complex of
elevated storms early Saturday morning due to the location of a
LLJ, but it does appear SEMO may be more favored for the
potential of heavier rainfall. QPF currently ranges from one
tenth to a half inch of rainfall, but locally higher amounts are
possible with rain chances peaking at a 50-60% Saturday
morning.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the western CONUS builds more
into the FA on Sunday with a return to dry conditions. Latest model
runs favor higher height rises, meaning the risk for storms riding
along the ridge may end up staying north and east of the FA between
Sunday and Tuesday. Still a non-zero chance something eventually
sneaks down, but the current NBM forecast does not reflect this.
However, the lack of rain means higher confidence in heat headlines
making a return with the western half pushing a heat index of 105 by
Sunday. Most of the FA likely will be near heat advisory
criteria during the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Scattered cu around 4-5 kft AGL will persist this afternoon with
light northeasterly winds. Tranquil conditions persist through
tonight as high pressure remains in control to the east. High-level
clouds then thicken into Friday morning, with easterly winds around
4 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 12:28 PM CDT---------------
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