CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 3:21 AM EDT829
FXUS61 KCLE 220721
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
321 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Anomalously-cool air mass arrives today with lake- effect
showers possible.
3) Temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Much cooler weather will arrive behind the cold front today as
850 mb temperatures fall to around 6C. Starting to see some lake
effect clouds develop downwind of Lake Erie early this morning,
with a few lake effect rain showers possible across the
snowbelt later this morning and afternoon. Even with the lake-
induced CAPE resulting from the near ~21C 850 mb/water
temperature difference, coverage should remain relatively
limited with a 700 mb inversion and dry air aloft in place.
Slightly higher moisture arriving off of Lake Huron may result
in better coverage of rain showers across portions of Northwest
Pennsylvania today. Given the chilly air mass in place and
cloud cover, highs today may struggle to reach the 70 mark in
some spots.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A large upper-level ridge across the Western and Central CONUS
will gradually expand further east into the Great Lakes by
Friday into the weekend, resulting in temperatures to return
near or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 80s. However,
a series of upper-level troughs across Hudson Bay appear poised
to block the eastward progression of the ridge. This pattern
would favor increasing rain chances across the area by early
next week (late Sunday through Tuesday), with the potential for
some organized stronger thunderstorms given the supportive mid
and upper-level environment. Will continue to monitor trends
over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A few lake effect rain showers are likely at KYNG early this
morning. Otherwise, dry weather is expected at most terminals
with MVFR ceilings likely in lake effect clouds at NE OH/NW PA
terminals through late this morning. Ceilings will likely
improve to VFR this afternoon. Winds will be out of the
northwest at 8 to 12 knots with periodic gusts to 20 to 25 knots
early this morning with winds diminishing to 10 knots or less at
most terminals by afternoon. Light and variable winds are
expected after 00Z Thursday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie are currently around 15-25 knots out of the
west-southwest with waves 2-5 feet with the upper end of those
occurring over the open waters. A strong cold front will pass west to
east across the lake late this evening and winds will shift to be
out of the northwest at 15-25 knots. Waves will build as a result
within the near shore zones east of the islands to 3-5 feet with
occasionally waves around 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is
currently active for all near shore zones to account for the current
conditions and for the conditions behind the front. The zones to the
west of the islands will see improvements shortly after frontal
passage and the small craft will last until 4AM tomorrow morning.
For areas to the east, conditions won't improve until late Wednesday
night. There will be increase rip risk as well from Lorain Co east
through Erie, PA with the increased winds and waves through late
Wednesday night as well. For Wednesday, there is a marginal risk for
waterspouts within showers as the lake is fairly warm and a colder
air mass moves in from the north. Conditions will improve early
Thursday morning through Saturday night as high pressure builds into
the region. Winds will decrease to less than 10 knots by Thursday
morning with waves subsiding to less than 2 feet.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 3:21 AM EDT---------------
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