MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 6:32 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...158
FXUS64 KMOB 192332
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
- Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the waters of the western
Florida panhandle and coastal zones. In addition to potential
tropical storm force winds, locally heavy rainfall may be
possible near the coast from Monday through Tuesday.
- High risk of rip currents beginning Monday evening for western
Florida panhandle beaches and starting Tuesday for Alabama
beaches.
- Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm
today, and from 10 am until 7 pm on Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Isolated to scattered storms are beginning to wane as we approach
sunset. The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed as
of now while we continue to monitor Tropical Depression 2 in the
Gulf. SS/97
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Depression Two has formed off the west coast of Florida,
and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Monday
morning while moving slowly northwestward. The system is expected
to gradually turn to a westward movement and move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Per the
forecast track, this system moves into southeast Louisiana late
afternoon or early evening on Wednesday. Please the National
Hurricane Center for the latest information on Tropical Depression
Two. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coastal portions
of the western Florida panhandle and extends across the adjacent
Gulf waters out 60 nm. It's possible that the Tropical Storm Watch
may be extended westward to include coastal southwest Alabama on
later updates, and a Wind Advisory may become necessary further
inland. Other than potential wind impacts associated with this
tropical system, there will be the potential for locally heavy
rains mainly affecting the immediate coastal area from Monday into
Tuesday which could lead to flooding issues.
Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for much of the
area tonight, with the higher pops near the coast. For Monday,
will have chance to likely pops for the southern portion of the
area tapering to low rain chances further inland, with the likely
pops confined mainly to portions of the western Florida panhandle.
Rain chances trend higher on Tuesday with likely to categorical
pops expected near and east of the I-65 corridor, with mostly
chance pops elsewhere. For Wednesday, have gone with chance to
likely pops for the southern portion of the area, with the higher
pops near the coast, along with rain chances tapering to slight
chance further inland. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 pm
this afternoon for our southeast Mississippi counties due to heat
index values up to 108, and another Heat Advisory is in effect for
the same area from 10 am until 7 pm Monday for similar heat index
values.
Have gone with a moderate risk of rip currents through Monday
night for the Alabama beaches, after which a high risk is in
effect from Tuesday through Wednesday night. For the western
Florida panhandle beaches, will have a moderate risk through
Monday, then a high risk is in effect from Monday night through
Wednesday night. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for
Thursday for all beach areas. Surf height values trend much higher
on Tuesday into Tuesday night, building from near 2 feet to 8-12
feet. This indicates that a High Surf Warning will likely become
necessary at some point between late Tuesday afternoon into the
evening hours. From Thursday into Saturday, am anticipating a
return to a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
showers and storms developing each afternoon. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period outside of storms. Current
isolated to scattered storms will wane as we approach sunset.
Northeasterly winds will begin to increase tomorrow afternoon
offshore and along the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle with
the approach of the tropical system. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms move through the area again tomorrow
afternoon. These storms are accompanied by gusty winds and drops
of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest
storms. SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Depression Two has formed off the west coast of Florida,
and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Monday morning
while moving slowly northwestward. The system is expected to
gradually turn to a westward movement and move near or along the
northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Winds strengthen
over the marine area on Tuesday then diminish Wednesday night. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 94 75 94 / 30 30 30 50
Pensacola 76 92 77 91 / 30 60 40 80
Destin 77 91 78 89 / 20 60 50 80
Evergreen 72 92 73 92 / 20 30 10 50
Waynesboro 75 95 76 96 / 20 20 10 20
Camden 73 91 74 91 / 20 20 10 20
Crestview 72 92 74 91 / 20 60 30 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late
Wednesday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.
High Rip Current Risk from Monday evening through late Wednesday
night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-
075-076-078-079.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ634>636-655-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 6:32 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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