[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 18, 12:19z for portions of PAH

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 18, 12:19z for portions of PAH

397 
WUUS01 KWNS 181221
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026

VALID TIME 181300Z - 191200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   46087307 44717296 43417240 42477136 40697102 99999999
       37807423 37967549 38417753 38877778 39467868 39878034
       39948309 40168398 40338477 40778593 41388588 42258477
       43438325 44198146 
0.05   44287736 44197631 43887533 43037284 42337219 40427207
       99999999 38497409 38607601 38757672 39357733 39937793
       40287844 40397903 40668030 40758223 41278261 42308188
CIG1   39207556 39637632 40457632 40947587 41427518 41497470
       40877381 40587369 40137374 39507409 39137437 38887487
       39207556 
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   45507537 44937410 43967373 42357217 40357208 99999999
       37317460 37497764 38337866 39757851 40128051 40348596
       40318658 40208843 40428861 40728844 41668746 42698496
       44118141 
0.05   49390591 46680890 45591037 44161223 43501313 43841436
       44361499 45851504 48021319 49831186 
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   49350567 46610893 44321199 43491311 43801434 44331501
       45831512 48011349 49821195 
0.05   36367400 34927756 34028021 33708168 33858274 33948389
       34548504 35288632 36678677 38909000 39539111 40649306
       41279293 41639165 43578582 45368135 99999999 45767211
       44077123 43397081 42257059 40887034 
0.15   45497364 43907297 42477138 40727101 99999999 36937449
       36777496 35947718 35507884 35357915 34998030 34938140
       35178194 35658182 36588097 37598067 38218088 38378184
       38198312 38308500 38848725 40348977 40939020 41458981
       41658896 41848754 42548513 43368336 44148153 
0.30   45497538 44937410 43967370 42347220 40467208 99999999
       38227412 38017516 37557712 37437766 37637828 38057846
       38477839 39057824 39577863 39697878 39747944 39618067
       39708190 39958343 40658530 41278552 42428383 42758299
       42958197 
0.45   44947689 44967599 44777542 44347459 43207419 42477421
       40617347 39557331 99999999 38467438 38137663 38217762
       38757802 39327783 39957789 40207835 39998000 40228141
       40658359 41268419 42098261 
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

ENH    44967599 44777542 44347459 43207419 42477421 40617347
       39977337 99999999 38467440 38137663 38217762 38757802
       39327783 39957789 40207835 39998000 40228141 40658359
       41268419 42098261 
SLGT   45487364 43907297 42477138 40727101 99999999 36677523
       35947718 35507884 34998030 34938140 35178194 35658182
       36588097 37598067 38218088 38378184 38198312 38308500
       38848725 40348977 40939020 41458981 41658896 41848754
       42548513 44098166 
MRGL   45477196 43397081 40887034 99999999 35987494 34927756
       34028021 33708168 33948389 35288632 36678677 38909000
       40649306 41279293 41639165 43578582 45168186 
MRGL   49350567 46610893 43491311 43801434 44331501 45831512
       48011349 49521221 
TSTM   37980077 38479843 38759770 39159730 39769724 40149754
       40529863 40980026 41870219 42420392 42400520 41990564
       40590567 39990542 39110457 38460396 37910296 37740181
       37980077 99999999 31081188 32931372 34571529 35611615
       36721673 37581695 39431703 43621671 45621619 46911524
       48681370 49441318 99999999 49399776 49029822 48819910
       48720016 48720146 48520208 48180237 47780252 47440239
       47220172 46639968 45199824 44589797 43979748 43499661
       43159461 42889247 42939063 43798771 45368457 46148304
       99999999 28349087 30649071 32318989 33708954 34288965
       34649007 34799095 34829173 34459420 33959570 32949795
       31259988 30560032 29400053 27860061 

&&
THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 N ART 30 WSW MSS 20 W SLK 30 WSW GFL 30 SW ALB 15 E JFK 50 SSE
JFK ...CONT... 70 S ACY 15 SW NHK 50 NNW RIC 45 S MRB 10 SE MRB 20
NNW HGR  0 - AOO 25 N MGW 30 NE ZZV 25 S FDY 30 SW TOL 35 SSE MTC

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75
NNW BTV 25 N RUT 20 WNW BOS 45 SE BID ...CONT... 55 ESE ORF 40 E
RWI 25 S RDU 40 ESE CLT 30 SW CLT 15 N SPA 25 W HKY 40 SSW PSK 25
SW SSU 30 NNE BKW 15 W CRW 35 WSW HTS 30 NW LEX 40 S HUF 25 SSW
PIA 35 WNW PIA 35 E MLI 25 NW MMO 40 NW VPZ 30 SE GRR 70 ENE BAX

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNE EFK 20 N PSM 30 SSW ACK ...CONT... 65 NE HSE  0 - OAJ 30
WSW FLO 30 NE AGS 30 W AHN 50 NNE HSV 30 SW BWG  0 - ALN 45 S OXV
10 ESE OXV 20 SSE CID 35 NE MKG 90 ENE OSC

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
85 N OLF 40 SE LWT 45 NNW PIH 20 N SUN 65 NNW SUN 30 SE P69 40 ESE
GPI 65 N CTB

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM  0 - GCK 35 SE RSL
0 - SLN 30 NE SLN 25 NE CNK 40 N CNK 10 WSW HSI 25 ESE LBF 35 ESE
AIA 30 NNE TOR 25 SSE DGW 45 N LAR 35 WNW FCL 30 WNW DEN 20 NNE
COS 30 ENE PUB 20 SW LAA 50 N EHA  0 - GCK ...CONT... 90 SW TUS 55
ENE YUM 40 WSW EED 65 NE DAG 40 W DRA 35 SSE TPH 10 ESE U31 25 W
BOI 50 N MYL 50 S 3TH 35 NE GPI 65 NNW CTB ...CONT... 60 NW HCO 70
NNE DVL 50 N DVL 60 ENE MOT 30 NNW MOT 40 WNW MOT 55 NW N60 70 N
DIK 50 NNE DIK 35 SSW N60 50 WSW JMS 20 SSE ABR 20 NE HON 30 ENE
MHE 10 SE FSD 35 SSW FRM 25 N ALO 30 SW LNR 25 S MTW 20 SE PLN 80
NNE APN ...CONT... 85 S HUM 25 ENE BTR 10 E JAN 35 ENE GWO 10 SW
UOX 30 S MEM 60 WSW MEM 30 ENE LIT 30 NNE DEQ 25 NNW PRX 15 NNE
MWL 40 ESE SJT 35 W JCT 25 E DRT 75 WNW LRD

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 18, 12:19z for portions of PAH

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