ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 9:37 PM EDT606
FXUS61 KILN 060137
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
937 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure
builds across the Ohio Valley. The next threat for showers and
thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture increases on the
backside of retreating high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front will continue to push east through the CWA late this
evening, with dewpoints falling from the 70s into the 60s as it
passes. Isolated showers will continue ahead of the front,
exiting the east by around midnight.
The rest of tonight should see mostly clear skies with some river
valley fog developing in prone areas. Temperatures will likely
dip into the lower to middle 60s by morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough continues to move eastward Saturday morning,
with the surface low still north across the Great Lakes. Enough
moisture extends southward supporting the development of
stratocumulus during the mid-morning through early afternoon.
Heating during the afternoon will erode the cloud deck from
south to north. As a result of the clouds, high temperatures are
a few degrees lower north of I-70, generally in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Westerly winds are between 10 to 15 mph with a few
gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon.
Throughout the afternoon and into the evening, a weak surface
high pressure builds in from the west, keeping conditions dry.
Under mostly clear skies, low temperatures range from the upper
50s to the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will keep the region dry for the beginning of the
week with temperatures rising back above normal. A short wave
will lift across the region on Tuesday dragging a weak cold
front across the area. This will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms which should clear out by Tuesday
evening.
Mid level pattern becomes blocky with a positively tilted long
wave trough extending from eastern Canada into the Plains during
the latter part of the week. Forecast area will be on the front
side of this in broad west southwesterly flow. Surface high
will translate across the Great Lakes into New England during
the latter half of the week. At the same time, there is
considerable uncertainty with the fate of Beryl, but it certain
is possible that some of the moisture from the remnants of that
storm works its way into the area at some point. Given the wide
range of possibilities, have just included low chance PoPs
Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak and mostly dry front will push east through the terminals
this evening, leading to a westerly wind shift. It will also
lead to drier conditions overnight with most sites remaining
VFR. Valley fog is likely late at LUK, and can't rule out some
temporary visibility restrictions at ILN (less confidence here).
Saturday will see westerly flow along with the formation of a
VFR cumulus field during the afternoon. These shallow clouds
will dissipate before sunset.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 9:37 PM EDT---------------
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