Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #729 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE082
AWUS01 KWNH 151742
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152300-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0729
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Areas affected...Northern Arkansas, Northeast Oklahoma and
Vicinity
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 151740Z - 152300Z
Summary...Convergence along a stationary front should continue to
produce scattered heavy thunderstorms through this afternoon over
northern Arkansas, northeastern Oklahoma, into Missouri and far
western Tennessee. Hourly rain amounts to 2" should lead to
localized flash flooding.
Discussion...A weak surface low is still over northeast Arkansas
with a mainly zonal stationary front draped across the northern
part of the state with a mid-level low along the MS/TN border. The
main activity remains west of the surface low center, but unlike
this morning, instability is greater north of the front which is
where recent activity has focused. Easterly flow below a strong
upper high centered over the Midwest will continue to push
activity westward over the Mid-South.
Cyclonic convergence along this front will continue to drive
convection along that zone as well. Light shear will keep the
storm motion slow and allow repeating. This is a rather moist
environment with 2.2" PW from the MO Bootheel to central AR with
2" extending west into OK.
Recent HRRR/RRFS continue to underdo this activity, but are
helpful in a general definition of the discussion area. Most the
afternoon precip should avoid the heavy rain areas from this
morning over western AR (into OK) and southern AR. FFG remains
elevated, generally 2.5"/3hr in northeast AR/Bootheel and 4"/3hr
over the Ozarks (in spite of the terrain).
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37219596 37059403 36799207 36509010 35848952
34609051 34859237 35329474 35999629 36779679
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #729 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
