LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 8:04 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...702
FXUS63 KLMK 140004
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
804 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated showers and storms this afternoon over southern Kentucky.
* Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with small chances for afternoon
rain and storms each day.
* Heat indices will range from 98-103 Wednesday through the end of
the week and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Low stratus from this morning has mostly lifted and thinned this
afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible over
the southeastern third of the region through the evening hours.
Ridging and high pressure will continue to overspread the region in
the short term. This will allow temperatures to increase a bit each
day. A weak cutoff low will remain in the southeastern CONUS which
will draw moisture northward. Dew points will remain in the low 70s.
Given the subsidence over the region, showers and storm chances will
remain low, but ample moisture and lingering vorticity will allow
low PoPs (<10%) to remain in the forecast.
Highs will peak in the upper 80s and low 90s, which will bring peak
heat indices into the upper 90s and low 100s. With plenty of sun and
very light winds, this will feel hot and muggy.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
By late Thursday into Friday, troughing over eastern Canada will
drop south and send a backdoor cold front into the Ohio Valley. This
will bring increased showers and storm chances to the region.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat
indices in the upper 90s and low 100s for this time.
Hottest days of this week look to be Thursday and Friday.
The backdoor cold front looks to make it through the region late
this weekend and into early next week, which will provide a slight
relief from heat.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
A line of rain with a few rumbles of thunder are working west past
RGA and LEX. This line is expected to dissipate as we lose diurnal
warming. Don't believe the line will affect the other TAF sites with
much more than a sprinkle at BWG possibly. Besides that, high
pressure continues to try to build in from the west. Skies should
remain VFR. This is a slight chance for some fogging near RGA, but
for now don't believe it will amount to much. Heavier fog is
expected farther to the southeast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 8:04 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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