JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 3:14 AM EDT259
FXUS63 KJKL 130714
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
314 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible each afternoon,
with the highest probability remaining near the Tennessee
border.
-Temperatures warm through next week, reaching the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees by Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
Variable cloud cover and/or fog are in place across most of
eastern Kentucky this morning with temperatures within a few
degrees of 70F. An area of weak ~1017 mb low pressure is situated
to the south over the Middle Tennessee Valley. A weak surface
trough extends northeastward from the low along the western
foothills of the Central Appalachians. Looking aloft, we find a
remnant weak 500 hPa trough/low over the upper Tennessee Valley.
Further upstream, a strong ~599 dam high is centered over the Red
River Valley of the North but is still elongated to the southwest
across the Colorado River Valley with an around 1022 mb surface
high reflection centered over Iowa.
The remnant upper-level trough/low will settle southward across the
Southeastern CONUS and become diffuse through the short-term, with the
surface low retrograding to near/over Northern Mississippi and
likewise becoming fade. Meanwhile, the upper-level high will
stretch eastward to over the Mid-Atlantic while the associated surface
high settles across the Ohio Valley. As the high moves in, the
surface trough initially over the western foothills will drift
southwestward out of the area. Simultaneously, PWATs will
gradually trend lower on northeasterly flow around the periphery
of the incoming surface high, with PWATs dipping to near 1 inch in
the north by Tuesday afternoon while higher PWATs will still
linger around 2.0 inches near/south of the TN-KY border.
In more sensible terms, look for variable low clouds and fog early
this morning, yielding to a mix of sun and clouds today. Showers and
a few thunderstorms can be expected to develop with diurnal heating and
the nearby surface trough. Convection should be scattered to numerous
in nature from Jackson to Letcher counties southward where PWATs will
remain higher, but only isolated at best further north. It will be
seasonably mild with highs in the lower to middle 80s. For tonight,
skies should become partly cloudy with fog developing through many of
the river valleys. It will again be seasonable with lows in the lower
to middle 60s. Finally for Tuesday, it will be mostly sunny and
turning warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Any isolated
shower or thunderstorm risk should be confined adjacent to the
TN-KY border and southward where deeper moisture will remain in
place.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 934 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
The long term period will open with troughing over the
northeastern CONUS and a strong 500mb high centered over the Upper
Midwest. Meanwhile, the vertically stacked low pressure system
responsible for this weekends active weather pattern will have
retreated to the southwest around the southern periphery of the
aforementioned high, landing in the vicinity of Mississippi and
Alabama by the start of the period. At the surface, an area of
high pressure will be located across the Appalachians near the
Virginia/West Virginia border, placing eastern Kentucky in a
regime of easterly to northeasterly flow both at the surface and
aloft. This will usher in a marginally drier air mass compared to
previous days; LREF mean PW values actually trend below
climatological normal on Tuesday, and surface dewpoints are
expected to fall into the mid 60s for much of the forecast area by
Tuesday afternoon. This drier environment, in addition to gradual
height rises from the approaching ridge, will work to suppress
convection throughout the day, giving eastern Kentucky a much
needed break from the rain. Temperatures will generally warm into
the mid 80s across the forecast area, within a few degrees of
average highs for this time of year. Overnight, ideal radiative
cooling conditions will allow for a mild ridge/valley temperature
split, with MOS guidance suggesting temperatures will generally
drop into the mid 60s for valley locations.
By midweek, the aforementioned 500 mb high will stretch eastward,
with the forecast area finding itself on the eastern periphery of
this ridging. Accordingly, high temperatures will rise above
average on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching into the upper 80s or
perhaps the low 90s. This pattern will also continue to suppress
convection, even as dewpoints begin to tick up, and rain chances
look to remain low across the forecast area. The potential
exception is again in our far southwestern counties, where an
afternoon storm or two cannot be ruled out. However, any rain
chances remain dependent on the positioning of ridging over the
forecast area.
Looking towards the weekend, upper level ridging will be
challenged as troughing digs into the eastern CONUS. Guidance is
split regarding whether or not ridging will break down over our
area going into the weekend; the NBM has attempted to average
these solutions by providing a chance for rain each afternoon,
although uncertainty remains high regarding the pattern going
forward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
Widely ranging conditions are noted across the area at the 06Z TAF
issuance, with VLIFR in low stratus and fog to VFR under clear
skies. While clearing will be possible at times, fog and low
clouds are generally expected to prevail through the night with
MVFR/IFR or worse conditions. Fog will burn off after daybreak
and sites will slowly recover to VFR by late morning. Showers and
storms are forecast to redevelop Monday afternoon but mainly for
KLOZ and KSME. Showers and storms could bring gusty and erratic
winds; as well as, brief category reduction. Outside of convection,
winds are forecast to become northeasterly at 10 kts or less
during the daylight hours.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 3:14 AM EDT---------------
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