CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 6:50 AM EDT818
FXUS61 KCLE 121050
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
650 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes as the forecast remains on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures
expected through Thursday.
2) Precipitation chances increase Friday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The stationary boundary over the Ohio Valley will slowly exit to the
east throughout the day on Sunday as high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes region. There may be an isolated shower or two, primarily
across Eastern Ohio as a surface trough lingers across the region,
but the majority of the area will remain dry. A strong upper level
ridge will build across the Central Plains that will support the
aforementioned high pressure. This high will settle across the
western portion of the Great Lakes early in the week and slowly
build east throughout the week. Temperatures will increase as a
result, with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s by the middle of
the week. Though, given the west to northwesterly flow over the
region, temperatures may stay a few degrees cooler with greater
confidence in this across the eastern portion of the CWA. Dew points
will be in the mid to upper 60s with heat indices rising into the
mid to upper 90s with some elevated heat risk across the region from
Tuesday through Thursday. Friday has lower confidence in heat risk
as the upper level trough across Eastern Canada pushes further south
into Eastern CONUS. Will continue to monitor trends and impacts to
any heat related risks.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper level trough across Eastern Canada will begin to move south
into Eastern CONUS on Friday bringing possible unsettled weather
back to the region. There's still quite a bit of spread on the
global models with timing and amplitude of this trough, so
confidence is fairly low in any details currently. Though, the
overall pattern suggests precipitation chances increasing into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Afternoon
cumulus clouds are expected today with isolated rain showers
18-23Z near KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.
Winds around 5 knots early this morning increase to 8 to 12
knots this afternoon with a few gusts to 20 knots. Light and
variable winds expected tonight.
Outlook...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the Erie, Lorain,
and Cuyahoga counties from 2 PM to 9 PM today. A Small Craft
Advisory has also been issued for the associated Lake Erie
Waters. Northeast winds around 15 to 20 knots will produce waves
of 3 to 5 ft, producing hazardous conditions for small craft,
and dangerous conditions for swimmers. Swimmers should remain
out of the water.
High pressure over the Great Lakes region today will gradually
drift southward to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, where it will
remain as it slowly dissipates through Wednesday. Quiet weather
conditions are expected on Lake Erie as southwest winds persist
through at least Tuesday before turning westerly Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Waves will be 1 foot or less, with 2 ft waves
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday when winds turn westerly.
A cold front crosses the Lake Wednesday evening, followed by
northerly flow developing behind the front Wednesday night.
Right now, waves are forecast to be less than 2 ft, but this
period is worth monitoring due to the onshore flow.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
this evening for OHZ009>011.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
evening for LEZ144>146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 6:50 AM EDT---------------
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