MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 12:51 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...560
FXUS64 KMOB 061751
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon
through the end of the week.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning can be expected with any storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The upper trough to the northwest is slow to move while encountering
the subtropical ridge to our east. This upper low centered generally
over southern Missouri becomes cutoff tonight and finally begins
moving northeast by mid week. We are still influenced by some
increased buoyancy leading slightly above average storm coverage
through tomorrow. There are very high PWATs of 2.0-2.1" which is
around the 90th percentile based on sounding climatology. Moisture
remains elevated through the end of the week with PWATs of 1.8-2.0".
A ridge slowly builds back in by the end of the week with the area
on the western edge dominated by southerly mid to upper level flow.
This brings rain chances to a more normal summertime pattern with
daily chances for isolated to locally scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze and resultant outflow
boundaries.
Heat index values continue to be just below the Heat Advisory
threshold of 108, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the
area. The building ridge by the end of the week will increase
temperatures and heat indices close to the aforementioned threshold
over the weekend. There continues be little overnight relief with
low temperatures through mid next week only reaching the low to mid
70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Anybody
outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when
possible. SS/97
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of scattered
showers and storms with a light westerly flow. Showers and storms
are most likely over the interior this afternoon with decreasing
confidence at the TAF sites. However, there is increasing confidence
in scattered to numerous showers and storms along the immediate
coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. Any storms may result in
brief reductions to MVFR or lower flight categories. /98
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail
through late week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 93 75 93 / 20 40 10 20
Pensacola 79 93 80 94 / 50 30 10 20
Destin 81 91 81 92 / 60 30 20 20
Evergreen 73 92 73 93 / 20 30 10 20
Waynesboro 73 92 73 93 / 30 40 20 20
Camden 73 90 74 91 / 30 20 20 10
Crestview 75 94 75 94 / 30 50 10 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 12:51 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...---------------
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