Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #636 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE294
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0636
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 070619Z - 071219Z
Summary...An incoming outflow boundary is beginning to enhance
convection across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Hourly rain
amounts to 3" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in
urban areas.
Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
beginning to multiply across portions of southeast LA, southern
AL, and just offshore MS within a region of gently convergent 850
hPa inflow. ML CAPE of of 2000-3000 J/kg exists here. Effective
bulk shear is weak, perhaps 15 kts, but cell motion is currently
slow. Precipitable water values of 1.8-2" inhabit the region.
The expectation is for the incoming outflow boundary to help
broaden convective coverage from west to east as it interacts
further with an unstable airmass with no CIN. Convergence at 850
hPa is expected to increase slightly this morning as well. Hourly
rain amounts to 3" are possible, and given high flash flood
guidance values, any flash flooding would be more probable in
urban areas.
Roth
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31248841 31038674 30298631 30108827 29558858
28938919 29168986 29099002 29009058 29099104
29279133 29549156 29919105 30269030 30828973
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #636 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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