IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 12:33 AM EDT590
FXUS63 KIWX 260433
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1233 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain arrives late Friday morning through Friday night,
heaviest along and south of the US 24 corridor.
- Becoming hot and humid next week with highs in the 90s and
heat indicies near 100 as early as Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
A series of disturbances and associated sfc lows will impact the
area over the next 24 to 36 hours before we shift to an overall
drier and much warmer period late this weekend and especially next
week.
An area of low pressure is located in NW Lower MI with a cold front
(more of a dewpoint front and wind shift) moving through our far NW
portions of the area. A line of cu is apparent on vis satellite and
these could increase in coverage and eventually bring a chance for
some widely scattered showers or storms as it moves SE through the
remainder of the afternoon. In addition, a stray shower or storm
could develop well ahead of the front where some agitated cu has
been located near a leftover boundary (mainly SE of I-69). No severe
weather is expected, but some brief heavy rain and maybe locally
gusty winds cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the front, less
humid conditions return briefly with the front temporarily stalling
to our south before another upper level wave allows the front to
push back north. Still some variance in models on how far north an
area of overrunning rain/rainshowers (isolated thunder) gets as the
main sfc low tracks across central IN. Highest pops remain related
to locations south of US 30 and moreso US-24 with rainfall amounts
of one half to 1" possible far south then tapering quickly to the
north. Any severe threat will remain near or south of the low track,
so we should be in the clear for this system.
After Friday night, the semi zonal upper level flow will transition
to massive ridging aloft and an eventual 592 to 596 dm upper level
high being centered over the area by next week. All signs still
point towards a rather dramatic warm up (much more summer like)
starting as early as Monday, but moreso Tuesday into Thursday with
highs in the 90s and heat indices near or above 100 degrees. Heat
headlines will be likely at some point next week. While the likihood
of convection is minimal, given the unstable environment, a stray
afternoon/evening shower or storm is possible and is depicted by the
spurious pops next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Inherited TAFs were in great shape resulting in minimal updates.
A warm front bisecting the mid-Mississippi Valley is the focus
point for showers and thunderstorms that will gradually slide
northeast through the period. KSBN appears on track to miss the
rain, but will carry on with the PROB30 for at least one more
TAF cycle. At KFWA, I did delay the MVFR ceilings until after
the rain has ended; better alignment with latest cross
sections. Medium confidence on the 16z start time due to a
fairly dry subcloud layer, yet strong omega may wring out some
showers on time.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 12:33 AM EDT---------------
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